本計畫擬使用主持人新發展的以4DVAR為基礎的資料分析方法，在同化雷達以及其他種類的觀測資料後，產出三維高時空解析度包含動力、熱力、及微物理變數的氣象場。研究的目的是使用由這些新方法所提供的高品質資料，來研究發生在台灣及鄰近地區中尺度強降雨系統的行為，包括雨帶內對流的激發、成長、移動、和衰退，重點在於了解地形與冷池所扮演的角色、邊界層內風切、熱力、與水氣場等因素的影響等。研究所需的資料來源為國內各單位的常規觀測資料，野外觀測實驗如2008年的SoWMEX、2016-2019年的TASSE、以及參與2020年的TAiwan-area Heavy rain Observation and Prediction Experiment (TAHOPE)實驗計畫所能取得的資料，計畫執行期間須編列經費以便投入移動式雷達TEAM-R參加TAHOPE。本計畫的執行，有助於我們將這幾年發展的各種分析與資料同化系統，用於了解發生於台灣與鄰近地區強對流系統的結構特徵與變化的物理機制，並將研究成果應用在改進模式對強降雨的短期預報能力。 ;In this project the PI attempts to apply newly developed 4DVAR-based data analysis methods which, after assimilating radar observations and data from other instruments, can provide three-dimensional high temporal/spatial resolution of meteorological fields. These fields include dynamic, thermodynamic, and microphysical variables. It is proposed to use these high quality data sets to study the meso-scale severe rainfall systems in Taiwan and vicinity area, including the convection initiation, development, movement, and decay. The focus is on the understanding of the role played by terrain and cold pool, and the influence of wind shear, thermodynamic, and moisture fields on the convective system. The data needed for this project will be from the regular observations in Taiwan as well as field experiments such as SoWMEX (2008), TASSE (2016-2019), and 2020 Taiwan-area Atmospheric and Hydrological Observation and Prediction Experiment (TAHOPE). The results produced from this project could allow us to better understand the characteristics and the physical mechanisms causing the evolution of the strong convective systems in Taiwan and vicinity areas, and help to improve model’s capability to conduct short-term forecast of heavy rain fall.
