台灣位於西北太平洋颱風活躍區，颱風所夾帶的強風往往對台灣帶來重大的災害損失。但台灣的風災保險並不普及，風災所造成的財物損失完全由受災戶和政府所承擔。近年來台灣正在興建大型的離岸風機，必須有風災保險，以分攤強風對風機損壞之財務損失。但缺乏離岸風機設置地點的長期風速資料，無法正確評估風機場址的強風發生機率及相關之風險。本研究將分析聯合颱風預警中心之颱風資料，建立一個蒙地卡羅模式(Monte Carlo method)模擬侵台颱風的路徑、中心氣壓，再以一個參數化模式計算近海平面的風速，模擬之地表風速並與中央氣象局沿海的地面觀測站之颱風風速比對。再利用蒙地卡羅模式模擬未來侵台颱風之路徑與風速，藉以擴展颱風風速之樣本數，利用統計分析和極值機率函數，計算出預備興建離岸風機地點的強風之發生機率和風機使用年限之重現期的設計風速，以供台灣西海岸離岸風機耐風設計或風險評估之用，發展之蒙地卡羅模式亦可用其他易受強風破壞之結構物的風險計算。 ;Typhoon is the most frequent and devastating natural disaster for Taiwan. This study integrates a Monte Carlo model and a parametric wind field model to simulate the tracks and wind speeds of landfall typhoons in Taiwan. The Monte Carlo model is based on the historical data of the moving speed, direction and central pressure of typhoons between 1970~2016, collected by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the US. The percentages of the simulated tracks of typhoons will be compared with the observed typhoon tracks of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan. Then the wind speeds of typhoons will be predicted by the parametric model of Holland (1980), and compare with the observed wind speeds near the western coast of Taiwan. This model can be used to compute the probability of extreme wind speeds and to assess the wind-damage risk of off-shore wind farms and other structures in Taiwan.
