臺灣位處副熱帶地區，除了弱綜觀條件下之局地性對流之外，均受到大範圍的上游天氣系統此區交織出多樣的天氣變化，加上臺灣地形複雜，更是讓天氣預報面臨更拮据的挑戰。本研究將規劃使用低軌道繞極衛星，如：NASA/A-Train中的CloudSat與CALIPSO之對於將水特性及冰晶敏感性，與新一代地球同步衛星向日葵八號(Himawari-8)的多頻道可見光與紅外線觀測資料，配合計畫主持人在先前科技部所補助之計畫下所發展的多種雲微物理參數反演，預計在三年的執行期限內，針對二個目標：(1) 大尺度水氣的傳輸方式與對流的發展環境特徵，評估滾動性適地化客觀訂正多重衛星觀測資料的重要性，(2) 並藉由長時期分析於此區的對流特徵後，分別以資料同化方式進行數值模擬與敏感度測試，以及進行適地性參數化調整優化，增加天氣系統特別是高衝擊天氣的認知，提高預報成效。 ;Taiwan locate in subtropical area, where is the boundary of Rossby wave and tropical disturbance. The southern water vapor was brought to Taiwan and develop as a server weather. It is difficult to predict a server weather with the complex terrain. Understanding the water vapor transportation and the environmental factors to initiate convective storm are critical for high impact weather monitoring and prediction. The development of convective storm is relative to its thermodynamic and cloud microphysical characteristics and leads to severe precipitation/high wind/lighting at surface. In the NWP model, the parameterization scheme is needed to serve as proxy when subgrid phenomena can not express explicitly. However, the thresholds to control certain parameterization have variability with season and location. In this project, we propose to achieve two major tasks in this project, which are (1) investigation of the large moisture transportation structure and mechanism and the environmental characteristics of convection, and conduct the localization of satellite data to adjust the systematic bias and explore the uncertainty with spatial-temporal variation; (2) quantifying the environmental control factors to conduct the sensitivity on parameterization threshold in the NWP simulations to evaluate the importance of precious working item. Through the project, we anticipate to increase the knowledge of convective storm, and produce the optimal use of satellite data in the NWP model.
