地震事件均勻度設定對SDICAE的強震預測效能的影響;Influence of the uniformity of events distributed along SDICAE on the efficiency of strong earthquake prediction using SDICAE

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Title:	地震事件均勻度設定對SDICAE的強震預測效能的影響;Influence of the uniformity of events distributed along SDICAE on the efficiency of strong earthquake prediction using SDICAE
Authors:	李冠毅;Li, Guan-Yi
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	最強地震圓弧雙交叉;Strongest Intersection of Circular Arcs of Earthquakes
Date:	2021-07-21
Issue Date:	2021-12-07 14:53:56 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究理念接續李顯智博士提出的「最強地震圓弧交叉」概念，且利用李顯智博士開發之程式 ASICAE，針對台灣地區搜尋出最佳最強地震圓弧交叉參數，本研究主要選取從 1982 年至 2014 年的地震目錄，並控制徑向誤差容許值 TOLRe 及度向誤差容許值 TOLde 進行分析。本研究主要探討在徑向誤差容許值 TOLRe 為 0.012 至 0.016,度向誤差容許值 TOLde 為 0.01 至 0.6 下，出現最強地震圓弧交叉數量及強震預測成效，分析在精度變化時最強地震圓弧交叉在台灣地區的強震預測能力將會如何受到影響。 ;This research analyzes the precision parameters TOLRe and TOLde related to the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDICAE) proposed by Hin-Chi Lei. We also use the matlab program ASICAE written by Lei in our analysis. The catalog of the earthquakes around Taiwan occurred from 1982 to 2014 is adopted. The parameter TOLRe is ranged from 0.012 to 0.016. The main purpose of this research is to study the efficiency of the strong earthquake prediction made by using SDICAE when the parameter TOLde is varied in a wide range. For this purpose the parameter TOLde is varied from 0.01 to 0.6. The variation of the probability that strong events with M≧5.7 will occur in the predicted area is observed and analyzed when TOLde increases from 0.01 to 0.6.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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