搜尋週期為四年時使用SDICAE作強震預測的最佳精度設定;The optimal precision parameter for SDICAE searched in four year period for strong earthquake prediction

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题名:	搜尋週期為四年時使用SDICAE作強震預測的最佳精度設定;The optimal precision parameter for SDICAE searched in four year period for strong earthquake prediction
作者:	范國豪;FAN, GUO-HAO
贡献者:	土木工程學系
关键词:	最強地震圓弧雙交叉;the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes
日期:	2021-09-02
上传时间:	2021-12-07 15:11:08 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	本研究是以李顯智博士利用MATLAB軟體所開發的程式ASICAE進行強震預測分析，從台灣中央氣象局地震資料庫中擷取西元1986年至2016年之地震目錄，在這些年間的地震事件的分布中，找出近似均勻排列之五個或五個以上的地震事件並繪出地震圓弧，對於有互相交叉之地震圓弧，在其交叉點附近觀察後續是否有大震發生，本論文針對最強地震圓弧雙交叉進行數據分析，將圓弧交叉形成後大震發生的天數進行整理，得出圓弧交叉形成後短天期內大震發生的機率。為了能夠找出使預測結果最為準確的參數，對形成最強地震圓弧交叉的參數進行調整，將不同的參數做排列組合，測試出各個組合之短天期預測機率。;This research is based on the program ASICAE developed by Dr. Lei, Hin-Chi using MATLAB software for strong earthquake prediction and analysis.The analyzed data is extracted from the earthquakes catalog of the Central Wealther Bureau of Taiwan. In the seismic events of every four years we try to find out five or more seismic events which approximately uniformly distribute along a circular arc of earthquakes(CAE). For two CAEs that intersect each other, we may observe whether there is a subsequent major earthquake near the intersection point. This thesis analyzes the data for the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes(SDICAE). After the SDICAE appeared,we find out the number of days between the forming day of the SDICAE and the day of occurrence of the major earthquake after it.And we also try to find out the probability that the major earthquake occurred in a short period.In order to find out the best precision parameter setting for us to carry out strong earthquake prediction by using SDICAE,we adjust the parameters that form SDICAEs and observe which setting will give us the best prediction probability.
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