國道5號頭城交流道在新增宜4匝道竣工通車後，高速公路局與宜蘭縣政府交通處擬定替代路線導引策略，以紓解在台9線從礁溪市區至頭城交流道路段之壅塞車流。該替代路線為右轉改行宜6線至191縣道，再北上至191縣道尾端，由宜4匝道直接北上至國道5號。 本研究期望應用eTag系統及車輛偵測器之資料進行研究，可找出平面道路前往交流道於壅塞狀態下路線選擇因素，以供相關單位進行交通管理上之參考。透過宜蘭縣政府交通處所設置eTag系統之偵測資料，以及公路總局於所轄省道上所佈設車輛偵測器資料，並搭配二元邏輯特迴歸模式，建立前往交流道之主要道路於壅塞狀況下，導引車流改行替代道路之路線選擇模式。 研究結果顯示Google Maps替代路線旅行時間、靠近起點之車輛偵測器VD1內側車道流量及速率、靠近頭城交流道之車輛偵測器VD2內側和中間車道流量、中間和外側車道速率，與路線選擇改行替代路線有反向影響關係。當上述顯著變數之值減少，改行替代路線機率提升；反之值增加，改行替代路線機率則是降低。 ;After the completion and opening of the new ramp in Toucheng Interchange of National Freeway No.5, the Freeway Bureau of MOTC and the Transportation Department of Yilan County formulated an alternative route guidance strategy to alleviate the traffic congestion on the section of Provincial Highway No.9 from Jiaoxi to Toucheng Interchange of National Freeway No.5. The alternative route is to turn right and change to Yilan Country Road No.6 to County Road No.191, then go north to the end of County Road No.191, and go north from new ramp directly to National Freeway No.5. This study is expected to apply the eTag system and vehicle detector data to find out the route selection factors of the local road to the interchange in the congested state, and to provide a reference for the relevant units to carry out traffic management. Through the detection data of the eTag system set up by the Transportation Department of Yilan County, the vehicle detector data deployed by the Directorate General of Highway on the provincial highways under its jurisdiction, and the binary logistic regression model, the route selection model of the main road to the interchange road is established under congested conditions to guide the traffic flow to the alternative route. Study results show Google Maps alternative route travel times, vehicle detector VD1 inner lane quantity and velocity near the origin, vehicle detector VD2 inner and middle lane traffic near Toucheng Interchange, middle and outer lane velocity, and route selection diverting to an alternative route has a negative impact. When the value of the above-mentioned significant variables decreases, the probability of changing to an alternative route increases; on the contrary, when the value increases, the probability of changing to an alternative route decreases.
