不同半徑比和搜尋週期對最強地震圓弧雙交叉 的強震預測效能之影響;The influence of different radius ratios and search periods on the strong earthquake prediction performance of the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes

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Title:	不同半徑比和搜尋週期對最強地震圓弧雙交叉的強震預測效能之影響;The influence of different radius ratios and search periods on the strong earthquake prediction performance of the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes
Authors:	蔡欣諺;Tsai, Hsin-Yen
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	最強地震圓弧雙交叉;the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes
Date:	2022-09-26
Issue Date:	2022-10-04 10:50:47 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究運用李顯智博士提出的｢最強地震圓弧雙交叉｣的概念來進行強震之預測分析。本研究從台灣中央氣象局地震資料庫擷取地震目錄，分析從1986年到2016年間發生之地震並搜尋出最強地震圓弧雙交叉。透過對最強地震圓弧交叉的不同搜尋週期dy、徑向誤差TOLRe和弧向誤差TOLde三大參數做調整，得出不同參數組合下的結果，再加入半徑比因素統計整理並進行數據分析後，便可得出各自的預測機率，再綜合以上的數據及分析來比較不同參數對於預測準確度的影響。最後發現在保留半徑比小於1.7的雙凸交叉，其70天內的強震命中率都能達到接近60%或更高，而半徑比小於1.7的凹凸交叉，其70天內的強震命中率都在50%或略低。 ;We make use of the concept of the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes proposed by Hin-Chi Lei to predict strong earthquake. The earthquake records from 1986 to 2016 taken from the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan are studied. The search period of the intersections dy , the radial precision parameter TOLRe and the circumferential precision parameter TOLde are assigned to different values in order to test the efficiency of the prediction by our theory. In addition, the radius ratio is also taken into account in our analysis. We found that the hit rate of the prediction of the strong earthquake within 70 days can reach 60% or even higher for the strongest double convex intersections of the circular arcs of earthquakes with radius ratio smaller than 1.7 if the parameter dy is smaller than 6. For the concave convex intersections with radius ratio smaller than 1.7 the hit rate of the prediction is a bit lower than or equal to 50% if dy is smaller than 6.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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