本研究內容主要是探討李顯智老師所提出最強地震圓弧雙交叉的強震預測理論，運用MATLAB程式進行最強地震圓弧交叉的搜尋，並彙整搜尋結果後進行分析。地震資料來源取自臺灣中央氣象局地震資料庫，研究選取的時間範圍為1980年到2016年，經緯度範圍是北緯21.7度到25.5度，以及緊貼台灣本島西部海陸交界處之一斜線，此斜線的函數式為y = 1.5 (x - 121) + 25，至緊貼台灣本島東部海陸交界處之一斜線，此斜線的函數式分別為y = 3.2143 (x - 120.7) + 21，其中x代表經度，y代表緯度。研究所使用的參數dY 設定為2到6年；TOLdePar設定為0.09、0.11、0.13、0.15；TOLRePar設定為0.012、0.014、0.016，蒐集由選定的時間點往前dY(年)的芮氏規模4.0以上深度20公里內的地震事件所組成的最強地震圓弧雙交叉，用以預測芮氏規模大於5.7且深度70公里內的地震。經深入分析後，發現引入半徑比因素刪除部分交叉能有效提升短天期強震預測的命中率，其中，在dY = 3和4時，可獲得較佳的預測效果，而在半徑比極小的最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉和半徑比極大的最強地震圓弧凹凸交叉皆有短天期強震預測命中率明顯提高的現象。;This research evaluates the strong earthquake prediction by the theory of the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDICAE) proposed by Hin-Chi Lei. The earthquake catalog from 1980 to 2016 is taken from the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan. The analyzed area is bouded by two lines of 21.7 and 25.5 degrees north latitude, and also by two oblique lines y = 1.5 (x - 121) + 25 and y = 3.2143 (x - 120.7) + 21 with x and y standing for longitude and latitude respectively. The oblique line cuts through the eastern coast is close to the boundry between the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Plate. The parameter dY is varied from 2 to 6 years, ToLdePar is set to be 0.09, 0.11, 0.13, 0.15, and ToLRePar is set to be 0.012, 0.014, 0.016. The SDICAES are formed by th events with magnitudes over 4 and depths smaller than 20 km, while the strong earthquakes predicted by them are of magnitudes over 5.7 and depths smaller than 70 km. It is found that the efficiency of the strong earthquake prediction can be improved by deleting some of the SDICAEs with certain values of radius ratios. Especially, when dY is equal to 3 and 4, the efficiencies of the strong earthquake predictions made by using SDCICAEs with very small radius ratios, or SCCICAEs with very large radius ratios are quite remarkable.
