建立台灣CAVSTD-GMPE模型並應用於地震預警

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题名:	建立台灣CAVSTD-GMPE模型並應用於地震預警
作者:	郭有祥;Guo, You-Xiang
贡献者:	土木工程學系
关键词:	地震預警;混淆矩陣;GMPE;CAV
日期:	2023-06-13
上传时间:	2024-09-19 14:12:21 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	台灣位處於環太平洋地震帶上，是由歐亞大陸板塊與菲律賓海板塊相互碰撞下所產生的大陸邊緣島嶼，在板塊的互相擠壓作用下，台灣每年都會發生數起的地震事件，歷史上也發生很多造成台灣經濟損失及人員傷亡的大地震，因此地震在台灣是非常重要之議題，但是截至目前為止地震仍無法像颱風一樣能夠精準的預測其發生位置、時間及規模，而地震預警系統(Earthquake Early Warning, EEW)是現今最能夠有效作為即時地震防災警訊的方法。地震預警系統最常以震度和PGA作為預警指標，但震度的分級標準落差太大，在評斷上並不精確，而PGA在顯示結構物損壞程度方面也不如CAV，因此，本研究建立了三種適用於台灣的CAVSTD-GMPE模型：log法、ln法以及新log法，並將其應用在台灣的地震預警系統當中。本研究所建立之CAVSTD-GMPE模型與地震預警應用結果如下：(1)以地震動參數預估準確率為目標，建議使用新log法；(2)以地震預警可信度為目標，建議使用log法；(3)使用最大準確率進行迴歸分析所建立之地震動衰減方程式，其應用於地震預警上的表現會優於或等於使用普通最小平方法進行迴歸分析所建立之地震動衰減方程式。 ;Taiwan is located in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt, which is a continental marginal island caused by the collision between the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Ocean Plate. Under the interaction of the plates, there are a number of earthquake events in Taiwan every year. In history, there have also been many massive earthquakes that caused economic losses and casualties in Taiwan, so the earthquake is a very important issue in Taiwan. However, up to now, it is still impossible to predict the location, time and scale of earthquakes as accurately as the earthquake. Even so, the earthquake early warning system (EEW) is the most effective method to provide real-time earthquake warning information. Earthquake early warning system most often uses intensity and PGA as early warning index, but the standard drop of intensity classification is too large to be accurate in judgment, and PGA is not as good as CAV in showing the damage degree of structures. Therefore, this study establishes three kinds of CAVSTD-GMPE models suitable for Taiwan: log method, ln method and new log method, and applies them to Taiwan′s earthquake early warning system. The results of the CAVSTD-GMPE model established and earthquake early warning application in this study are as follow: (1) the new log method is recommended for the prediction accuracy of ground motion parameters, and (2) for the credibility of earthquake early warning, the log method is recommended. (3) the ground motion prediction equation established by regression analysis with maximum accuracy is better than or equal to the ground motion prediction equation established by ordinary least square method in earthquake early warning.
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