搜尋週期為三年時台灣極淺層地殼的最強地震圓弧雙交叉分析:交叉幾何特性對強震預測效果之影響;Analysis of the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquahes in the very shallow crust of Taiwan searched in three year period : the efficiencies of strong earthquake prediction corresponding to different geometric features of the intersections

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題名:	搜尋週期為三年時台灣極淺層地殼的最強地震圓弧雙交叉分析:交叉幾何特性對強震預測效果之影響;Analysis of the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquahes in the very shallow crust of Taiwan searched in three year period : the efficiencies of strong earthquake prediction corresponding to different geometric features of the intersections
作者:	商文澤;Shaung, Wen-Ze
貢獻者:	土木工程學系
關鍵詞:	地震預測;最強地震圓弧雙交叉;earthquake prediction;the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes
日期:	2023-08-17
上傳時間:	2024-09-19 14:44:18 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	本論文研究台灣本島附近兩種深度極淺層地震事件: 20公里和30公里以內深度的事件。所搜尋的最強地震圓弧雙交叉其搜尋週期為三年，並探討這些雙交叉各種幾何特性對強震預測效能的影響，這些幾何特性是半徑比、端弧比、分叉弧長比、兩端分叉對稱比和長軸方向角。我們發現在長軸方向角的某些範圍內，若加入半徑比和端弧比的考量，可得到不錯的短期(70天內)強震(規模大於5.7)預測之效果，而且這種較佳效果在20公里和30公里深的雙凸和凹凸交叉分析皆可發現。 ;Two groups of very shallow earthquake events around Taiwan island are studied. Their depths are within 20km or 30km. The searching period of the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDICAE) is set to be three years. The efficiencies of strong earthquake prediction corresponding to different geometric features of the SDICAE are evaluated. The geometric features include: the radius ratio, the ratio of the arc lengths of the ends, the radio of the branched arc lengths, the ratio of the symmetries of the branched arc lengths of the ends, and the direction angle of the long axis. It is found that, in certain ranges of the direction angle of the long axis, if the radius radio and the ratio of the arc lengths of the ends are taken into account, the hit rate of the short term prediction (within 70 days) of the strong earthquake (with magnitude over 5.7) by the SDICAE can reach rather high values. These positive results can both be found by using the SDICAEs with depths within 20km and within 30km
顯示於類別:	[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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