搜尋週期為四年時臺灣極淺層地殼的最強地震圓弧雙交叉分析：交叉幾何特性對強震預測效果之影響;Analysis of the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes in the very shallow crust of Taiwan searched in four year period : the efficiencies of strong earthquake prediction corresponding to different geometric features of the intersections

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題名:	搜尋週期為四年時臺灣極淺層地殼的最強地震圓弧雙交叉分析：交叉幾何特性對強震預測效果之影響;Analysis of the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes in the very shallow crust of Taiwan searched in four year period : the efficiencies of strong earthquake prediction corresponding to different geometric features of the intersections
作者:	廖柏翰;Liao, Po-Han
貢獻者:	土木工程學系
關鍵詞:	地震預測;最強地震圓弧雙交叉;earthquake prediction;the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes
日期:	2023-08-17
上傳時間:	2024-09-19 14:44:28 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	本論文的臺灣本島附近最強地震圓弧雙交叉（SDICAE）是設定四年為搜尋週期所尋找出來，我們所考慮的極淺層地震事件其深度分兩種，一種是在深度二十公里之內，另一種是在深度三十公里之內。我們研究不同交叉的幾何特性對強震預測的影響，這些幾何特性包括半徑比、長軸方向角、端弧比、分岔弧長比和兩端分岔對稱比。在上述各種特性中，我們發現半徑比、長軸方向角和端弧比對使用最強地震圓弧雙交叉（SDICAE）進行強震預測有幫助。當長軸方向角落在某些範圍中，加上半徑比和端弧比也在特定區間，則利用最強地震圓弧雙交叉（SDICAE）進行短天期（七十天內）強震（規模5.7以上）預測可得出甚佳的命中率 ;The searching period of the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes（SDICAE）around Taiwan island is set to be four years in this thesis. Two types of SDICAE formed by the very shallow seismic events with depths within 20 Km or 30 Km are considered. We study the efficiencies of strong earthquake prediction corresponding to different geometric features of the SDICAE. The geometric features considered by us are the radius ratio, the direction angle of the long axis, the ratio of the arc lengths of the ends, the ratio of the branched arc lengths, and the ratio of the symmetries of the branched arc lengths of the ends. Among these features, the radius ratio, the direction angle of the long axis, and the ratio of the arc lengths of the ends are found to be useful in the earthquake prediction by using SDICAE.Within certain ranges of the direction angle of the long axis, if the radius ratio and the ratio of the arc lengths of the ends are kept inside certain intervals then the hit rare of the short term prediction（within 70 days）of the strong earthquake（with magnitude over 5.7）by using the SDICAE can be rather remarkable.
顯示於類別:	[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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