| 摘要: | 台灣地區水資源除了受天侯與地形等因素影響外，且具有高度不確定性及時空上分佈不均勻，造成水資源運用上日益困難，面臨供需失衡之困境。本研究主要針對台灣北部之區域多元化水資源調配進行分析探討，首先利用水平衡系統模式推估桃園灌區之區域迴歸水量，顯示該模式能適當模擬出河川流量變化之趨勢，在迴歸水可靠度分析方面，田區在不同總供水比例下經由超越機率圖比較，農業日迴歸水量隨著總供水量減少而逐漸趨於一穩定之狀態，新屋溪流域約趨近於12,000立方公尺，觀音溪約為4,000立方公尺。 桃園地區的埤塘灌溉系統為台灣特有農業灌溉方式之一，可提升降雨量使用率與調蓄輔助農業灌溉用水，在桃園大圳二支線灌溉區域內，下游零星不具備埤塘之灌區易出現缺水情況，當進行深水灌溉模擬時，提高出水口高度可增加210mm的有效雨量，使得總缺水量減少188,180立方公尺。以整體二支線埤塘系統之調節蓄水能力而言，該區域有能力移用20％大圳配水量供工業與民生使用，其中2-3-4號埤池為此灌溉系統效能之臨界點，如果能將容量增加為原來15％以上，即可以將二支線埤塘灌溉系統效能從20％提升至30％。 水庫運轉規線制訂之目的係提供水庫操作者可遵循之運轉方式，儘可能在規劃條件下滿足各種用水標的之需求，並達成最高之系統運轉效率，經由對水庫規線的調整及模擬，可瞭解只要掌握水庫放水原則、河川流量變化與發電廠特性，即可制訂滿足多目標供水之最適規線。當考量水庫入流量之不確定性，利用最佳化水庫聯合運轉系統得到各水庫之最適規線，其分佈呈帶狀區間，而區間大小隨各水庫入流量與供水特性而異，此結果有助於未來在水庫規線制訂上更顯得客觀，而且有多一層水文不確定因素考量。 The water resource in Taiwan is very difficult to be managed, because it is not only influenced in climate and topography but also faced to extremely uncertainty and the unequal spatial distribution. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the allocation of regional multiple water resources in North Taiwan. Firstly, the field water balance model, being developed to evaluate the amount of agriculture return flow in Tao-Yuan irrigation area, can adequately simulate the real flow hydrograph. Through reliability analysis, the daily return flow would tend to a stable value with reducing the total supply water of paddy field. Sin-Wu area is approximately 12,000 m3, Guan-Yin area is 4,000 m3. Tao-Yuan pond irrigation system is the ancestor’s intention to increase the effective rainfall to overcome the particular climate pattern with the use of geographic advantage. There are several places would face deficit easily without water pond supplied through the 2nd feeder of Tao-Yuan main canal. While deep-ponding irrigation method is practiced, the effective rainfall is acquired 210 mm more than in traditional irrigation and cut down 188,180m3 in shortage amount. After model assessing, the result shows this pond irrigation system has potential to sustain crop growth with approximately 20 % decreasing water supply from canal and the flows can be transferred to meet other demand. Furthermore, Pond #2-3-4 is the critical point of efficiency in this pond irrigation system. If this pond is increased by 15% of capacity, the efficiency of the pond irrigation system of 2nd feeder would be promoted from 20% to 30%. The goal of operation practice, following a proper set of rule curves, is not only to reduce the water shortage amount but also to enhance the hydropower efficiency. Therefore, a model that consists of a multi-site flow generation sub-model and a GA-based optimization sub-model is presented, to optimize a rule-based stochastic simulation. The results reveal that the model is applicable for deriving predefined operating rules based on the full consideration of hydrological uncertainty and GA-based automation. |
