| 摘要(英) |
Summary
The purpose of this thesis is to construct housing price index used for comparing the local housing market around Taoyuan and Hsinchu area. By the way of using transaction materials from some realty companies in the area, the theory of hedonic price approach is applied to propose a basic model and a topical model, then to compile housing price indices for analyzing house price variation and its development tendency during 1995 to 2005.
According to the analysis result of empirical models, conclusions were obtained as follow:
First, the empirical results of the basic model show a robust explanation to housing price formation; After added more dummy variables to control the model, then it has obvious evidence confirmed on consumer’s behavior about housing price rise and drop changes.
Second, using the Box-Cox transformation method to detect the non-linear relations between the price and characteristics, the results further confirmed that the majority of housing price models has the feature of non-linear relations.
Third, if joined together with township (location) and house type variables to the topical model, housing price function may transform from non-linear to linear relations, which found a way for solving the functional uncertainty arguments when directly using semi-logarithm to housing price model.
Fourth, housing price index of this thesis carried on the comparison with the simple moving average housing price index, the results indicated that the former is better than the later in rationality, not only in integrity of yearly curve but also in the explanation to house price variation. Then, the hedonic price approach might be superior to moving average method in the explanation of housing price changing tendency.
Fifth, comparison with a housing price index in market which announced in regular by a realtor company, discovered that, take 2000 as base period, housing price index chart presented both are almost coincident, and if moved base period to 1995, then the dropped rate of housing price index that Taoyuan and Hsinchu area was obviously more expanding than what they announced of larger area.
Under the relative shortages of research resources, any moderate realty companies may use housing price index model that had constructed by this thesis, doing somewhat similar analysis to individual smaller market, and applying to housing price appraisals. It would be very helpful to understand the changes of the local house market. |
| 參考文獻 |
參考文獻
一、中文部份
林義男 (1981)，《統計學導論》，巨流圖書公司，P163~P178。
郭明哲 (1985)，《預測方法理論與實務》，中興管理顧問公司，P93~P119。
辜柄珍 (1989)，《房地產價格指數查編之研究》，行政院主計處。
陳明吉 (1989)，《房地產價格及其變動因素之研究》，政治大學地政研究所碩士論文。
張金鶚 (1991)，《房地產真實交易價格之研究》，政大地政系。
殷章甫 (1995)，《土地經濟學》，五南圖書出版公司，P6~P10。
楊宗憲 (1995)，《住宅價格指數之研究》，政治大學地政研究所碩士論文
林秋瑾、楊宗憲、張金鶚 (1996)，《住宅價格指數之研究—以台北市為例》，住宅學報。
張金鶚 (1997)，《房地產投資與決策分析理論與實務》，華泰書局，P56~P59、P423~P566。
姜堯民 (2001)，《不動產投資理論與實務》，新陸書局股份限公司，P3~P8。
林惠玲、陳正倉，《統計學方法與應用(下)》，雙葉書廊有限公司，P548~P579。
二、西文部份
Becker G. (1965), A theory of the allocation of time, Economic Journal, 75, 493-517.
Bowen, W.M., B.A. Mikelbank and B.M. Prestegaard (2001), Theoretical and empirical considerations regarding space in hedonic housing price model application, Growth and Change, 32(4), 466-490.
Box, G.E.P. and D.R. Cox (1964), An analysis of transformations, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 26, 211-243.
Box, G. E. P. and N.R. Draper (1969), Evolutionary operation: a statistical method for process improvement, John Wiley & Sons.
Capozza, D.R., R.D. Israelsen and T.A. Thomson (2005), Appraisal, agency and typicality: evidence from manufactured homes, Real Estate Economics, 33(3), 509-537.
Clapp, J.M., H.J. Kim, and Alan E. Gelfand (2002), Predicting spatial pattern of house price using LPR and baysian smoothing, Real Estate Economics, 30(4), 505-532.
Fletcher, M., J. Mangan and E. Raeburn (2004), Comparing hedonic models for estimating and forecasting house prices, Property Management, 3/4 189.
Goodman, A.C. and T.G. Thibodeau (2003), Housing market segmentation and hedonic Prediction Accuracy, Journal of Housing Economics, 12(3), 181-201.
Griliches, Z. (1971), Price indexes and quality change: studies in new methods of measurement, Harvard University Press: Cambridge, MA., 3-15, 55-87.
Haan, J. D. (2004), Direct and indirect time dummy approaches to hedonic price measurement’, Journal of Economics and Social Measurement, 29, 427-443.
Kain, J.F. and J.M. Quigley (1970), Measuring the value of housing quality, Journal of the American Statistical Association , 65, 532-548.
Kain, J.F. and J.M. Quigley (1975), Housing markets and racial discrimination, New York, NY: Columbia Press University for NBER.
Lancaster, K. (1966), A new approach to consumer theory, Journal of Political Economics, 74, 132-157.
Laurice, J. and R. Bhattacharya (2005), Prediction performance of a hedonic pricing model for housing, The Appraisal Journal, 73(2), 198-209.
Muth,R. (1969), Cities and housing, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
O’Sullivan, A. (2003), Urban economics, 5th edition, international edition, McGraw-Hill Irwin, 433-435.
Pindyck, R.S. and D.L. Rubinfeld (1998), Econometric models and economic forecasts, McGraw-Hill International Editions, 4th edition, 277-280.
Ridker, R.G. and J.A. Henning (1967), The determinants of residential property values with special reference to air pollution, Review of Economics and Statistics, 49(2): 246-257.
Rosen, S. (1974), Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition, Journal of Political Economy, 82(1): 34-55.
Rosen, S., (1979), Wages-based indexes of urban quality of life, in Current issues in urban economics, Edited by P. Mieszkowski and M. Straszheim. Baltimore:John Hopkins University Press.
Rush, R. and T.H. Bruggink (2000), ‘The value of ocean proximity on barrier island houses, The Appraisal Journal, 142-150.
Wallace, N.E. (1996), Hedonic-based price indexes for housing: theory, estimation, and index construction, Economic Review, Federal Reseve Bank of San Francisco, 34-48.
Wolverton, M.L. and S.C. Bottemiller (2003), Further analysis of transmission line impact on residential property values, The Appraisal Journal, 244-252.
Wooldridge, J.M. (2003), Introductory econometrics: A modern approach. 2nd edition, Thomson Learning, South-Western. |
[Endnote RIS 格式]
[相關文章]
[文章引用]
[完整記錄]
[館藏目錄]
[檢視]
plurk
funp
live
udn
HD
myshare
netvibes
friend
youpush
delicious
baidu
Google bookmarks
del.icio.us
hemidemi
facebook
twitter
google
reddit