| 摘要(英) |
There are much investment in Taiwan, Korea and Japan Foreign investment to China , but in recent years , their relationship are gradually replaced from complementary to alternative in the observation of the export trades. It is likely that there exists the difference in product level among four countries and export on four countries brings impact on one another. What
"are" their relationship, alternative or complementary? What is their relationship, alternative or complementary? This purpose of this study aims to discuss related factors on exports including China, Korea, Japan and Taiwan, which trade in Europe, America, Southeast Asia and other 36 countries between 2002 and 2012 on the basis of the gravity model. It will interact between the four countries trade, which led to the country′s exports having significantly increase or decrease.
The study is based on McCallum’s gravity model and the empirical studies after variable modification have shown that the relationship among Japan, Korea, and China are complementary in terms of export in Taiwan. However, Japan only shows significant complementary relationship between Taiwan and Korea while Korea only shows significant complementary relationship on Japan. The relationship between Mainland China and Japan is substitute but between Mainland China and Taiwan is complementary in terms of export. From above statistics, there is no significant crowding-out effect on export among four nations and thus the factors of foreign exchange among four nations are taken into account. The results have shown that the depreciation of the yen has significant negative influence on Taiwan and Mainland China but has temporal positive correlation on exchange rate in Korea. Instead, the relationship between depreciation of the won and current negative influence in terms of export in Taiwan is not notable. An obvious positive relationship exists in New Taiwan Dollar and export in Japan. Finally, the fluctuation of the exchange rate of Renminbi shows significant negative correlation but does not in Taiwan in terms of export.
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