| 摘要(英) |
The trend of Taiwan′s population structure changing is mainly due to medical technology development and late marriage, fertility reduction, life-span is getting longer and the number of children is gradually reduced. Aging population and low birth rate accelerate Taiwan into the aging society. Therefore, the expenditure on the aging population is the main social and economic issue. I would like to explore whether the proportion of the aging population gradually increases, and then government’s financial expenditure on education will reduce due to the expenditure for pension and health care to the aging population. Is there exclusion to the expenditure between aging and children?
In this paper, using panel data model, data includes 20 cities and counties in Taiwan, and time period is from 1998 to 2015. The proportion of the annual expenditure on education is the dependent variable. The total number of young people, the total population of the elderly, per household median disposable income, the total number household of cities and counties are independent variables. The results of empirical analysis show that this study is suited to fixed effect model, the relation between total population of young children and education expenditure is positive, representing the total number of young children increasing, the county’s government education spending will significantly increase. The total number of elderly population and education expenditure is positive, which is different from the expected result. The reason may be that the government has always regarded education as the important development in the future, so the education expenditure and the elderly population are increasing. However, while situation of population aging is getting heavy, there might a conflict between aging trend and financial expenditure on education. |
| 參考文獻 |
一、中文文獻
〔1〕 內政統計查詢網。2017 年5 月19 日，取自
http://statis.moi.gov.tw/micst/stmain.jsp?sys=100
〔2〕 中華民國財政部。2017 年5 月19 日，取自
http://www.mof.gov.tw/Pages/List.aspx?nodeid=273#
〔3〕 財團法人國家政策研究基金會（2010）。少子化、高齡化Q&A。取自http://www.npf.org.tw/13/8108
〔4〕 Hill, R. C., Griffith, W. E. and Lim, Guay C.著，計量經濟學，黃智聰、梁儀盈譯。台北：雙葉書廊，民國101 年。
〔5〕 林子源，「全民健康保險對老年化家庭儲蓄行為的影響」，國立東華大學，
民國98 年。
〔6〕 車士義、郭琳（2011）。結構轉變、制度變遷下的人口紅利與經濟增長。人口研究，2，3-14。
〔7〕 蔡旭明，「人口結構轉變對勞動參與率及經濟成長的影響」，東吳大學，碩士論文，民國96 年。
〔8〕 謝雨生，「勞動力人口結構變遷對人力運用的影響」，人口學刊，14，1-28，1991。
〔9〕 羅慧君，「人口老化、資本形成與經濟成長」，國立成功大學，博士論文，民國102 年。
二、 英文文獻
〔10〕Anderson, G. F., & Hussey P. S. (2000), Population aging: a comparison
among industrialized countries. Health Affair, 19(3): 191-203.
〔11〕Cattaneo, M. A., and Wolter S. C. (2009), Are the elderly a threat to educational expenditures? European Journal of Political Economy, 25(2):
225-236.
〔12〕Elmendorf, D. W., & Sheiner, L. M. (2000), Should America save for its old age? Fiscal policy, population aging, and national saving. The Journal of
Economic Perspectives, 14(3): 57-74.
〔13〕Gradstein, M. & Kaganovich, M. (2004), Aging population and education finance. Journal of Public Economics, 88(12): 2469-2485.
〔14〕Grob, U., & Wolter S. C. (2007), Demographic change and public education spending: a conflict between young and old? Education Economics, 15(3):
277-292.
〔15〕Harris, A. R., Evans, W. N., & Schwab, R. M. (2001), Education spending in an aging America. Journal of Public Economics, 81(3): 449-472.
〔16〕Hazan, M., & Zoabi, H. (2015), Do Highly Educated Women Choose Smaller Families? The Economic Journal, 125(587): 1191-1226.
〔17〕Nardi, M. De, Imrohoroğlu, S., & Sargent, T. J. (1999), Projected U.S.Demographics and Social Security. Review of Economic Dynamics, 2(3):575-615.
〔18〕Peter Kennedy (Eds.), A Guide to Econometrics, MIT Press, Massachusetts,2003.
〔19〕Poterba, J. M. (1997), Demographic Structure and the Political Economy of Public Education. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 16(1):48-66.
〔20〕Tosun, M. S., Williamson, C. R., & Yakovlev, P. (2009). Population Aging,Elderly Migration and Education Spending: Intergenerational Conflict
Revisited. Working Paper, IZA Discussion Paper No. 4161.
〔21〕United Nations (2015). World Population Ageing.
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/WPA2015_Report.pdf |
[Endnote RIS 格式]
[相關文章]
[文章引用]
[完整記錄]
[館藏目錄]
至系統瀏覽論文 ( 永不開放)
plurk
funp
live
udn
HD
myshare
netvibes
friend
youpush
delicious
baidu
Google bookmarks
del.icio.us
hemidemi
facebook
twitter
google
reddit