依據地熱能重新思考聖基茨島的能源未來

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朗道•菲利浦(Rhondel Devyn A. Philip) 查詢紙本館藏

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國際永續發展碩士在職專班

論文名稱

依據地熱能重新思考聖基茨島的能源未來
(Rethinking the Energy Future of St. Kitts based on The Geothermal Power)

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摘要(中)

儘管加勒比海島嶼擁有大量現成的再生能源，包括太陽能，風能，地熱能和生物質能源，但它們仍面臨嚴重依賴並依賴進口化石燃料，能源部門面臨諸多挑戰。像聖基茨和尼維斯聯邦等小島嶼的發展中國家從政府獲得能源補貼，但從經濟角度看，這不能被視為長期解決辦法。長期和更大的經濟解決方案是通過引入再生能源技術使能源結構多樣化，從而減少對進口化石燃料的依賴，也創造長期的能源安全，這一直是加勒比海國家領導人的首要議程。
本論文的主要目標是分析聖基茨能源部門，並展示如何通過實施利用地熱能作為我們的再生能源技術來實現能源安全。
通過執行能源生產分析，財務分析和溫室氣體排放分析，使用RETScreen模擬軟體來評估擬建的一座地熱發電廠的可行性評估。依據初步分析，此電廠的建議的發電容量為22百萬瓦，年發電量約為183,7百萬度。而淨現值，內部收益率，簡單投資回收期，收益成本比率和能源生產成本則作為財務指標來評估地熱發電廠的獲利。敏感性分析顯示影響盈利能力的最敏感變數，並且隨著實施每度0.078美元的躉購電價，該專案的初始成本在財務和經濟上有很高的吸引力。本文還進行了溫室氣體排放分析，結果發現每年約可減排48,562噸二氧化碳，相當於減少消耗112,935桶的原油。

摘要(英)

The islands of the Caribbean, despite their large amounts of readily available renewable energy resources, including solar energy, wind power, geothermal energy, and biomass, face many challenges to their energy sectors as they are still heavily dependent and rely on imported fossil fuel for their energy production. Small island developing states such as the federation of St. Kitts and Nevis, receive subsidies from the government but economically this cannot be seen as a long term solution. A long term and much greater economic solution would be to decrease the dependency of imported fossil fuel by diversifying the energy mix with the introduction of renewable energy technologies, thus creating long term energy security which has been the top agenda for Caribbean leaders.
The main goal of this thesis is to analyse the energy sector of St. Kitts and demonstrate how we can achieve energy security by implementing the use of geothermal energy as our renewable energy technology to cover baseload. With geothermal there is the added advantage of it being a god source of energy with practically no harmful emissions, exceptionally constant source of energy doesn’t depend on the climate, high efficiency with little to no maintenance. There are moderately large areas of steaming ground in the crater of Mount Liamuiga, as well as thermal springs along the western shoreline.
The pre-feasibility assessment of the proposed geothermal power plant is evaluated using RETScreen simulation software, through the performance of an energy production analysis, financial analysis and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis. An annual electricity generation of roughly 183,700 MWh with an energy production of 22 MW were the initial results obtained, this is about 51% of electricity installation capacity of present St. Kitts. The net present value (NPV) which should have a positive value, internal rate of return (IRR) which should be equal or greater than the discount rate, simple payback period (SPP) which measures the time it takes to recover the initial investment, benefit-cost ratio (B/C) which should be greater than 1 and energy production cost (EPC) which could be used calculate the avoided cost of energy for the project to break even where used as financial indicators which gave profitably indications for the development of the geothermal power plant project.
The sensitivity analysis shows the most sensitive variable affecting profitability and as the initial cost of the plant decreases with a feed in tariff of USD 0.078 per kWh the project will be highly attractive financially and economically. This study also performs an environmental GHG emissions analysis and it is found that some 48,562 tons of CO2 per year, which equivalent to without consuming 112,935 barrels of crude oil.

關鍵字(中)

★ 加勒比海地區
★ 地熱能
★ 可行性初步評估
★ 敏感性分析
★ 溫室氣體排放

關鍵字(英)

★ Caribbean
★ geothermal energy
★ pre-feasibility assessment
★ sensitivity analysis
★ greenhouse gas emission

論文目次

Table of Contents
Abstract ………………………………...…………………………………………………….i
Chinese Abstract iii
Acknowledgments iv
List of Tables…………………………………………………………………………...……….viii
List of Figures…………………………………………………...…………………..……………ix
Acronyms ……………………………………………………………………………..………..x
Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1 General background 1
1.2 Climate 1
1.3 Population 2
1.3 State and economy 2
Chapter 2. Electricity Sector 4
2.1 Electricity Sector Analysis 4
2.2 Electricity generation 5
2.3 Projected capacity expansion 6
2.4 Electricity prices 8
Chapter 3. Renewable Energy Technologies 9
3.1 Resource Analysis 9
3.1.1 Biomass 9
3.1.2 Wind 11
3.1.3 Solar 14
3.1.4 Geothermal 16
3.2 Evaluation of Renewable Energy Technology 19
3.2.1 Biomass 19
3.2.2 Wind 20
3.2.3 Solar 21
3.2.4 Geothermal 21
3.3 Rational for Selection 22
Chapter 4. Methodology 24
4.1 Types of Geothermal Plants 24
4.1.1 Dry Steam Power Plants 25
4.1.2 Flash Steam Power Plants 25
4.1.3 Binary Cycle Power Plant 28
4.1.4 Combined-Cycle or Hybrid Plants 29
4.2 Selection of Geothermal Plant 30
4.3 RETScreen Clean Energy Project Analysis 32
Chapter 5. Feasibility Assessment 36
5.1 Technical Feasibility Assessment 36
5.1.1 Location and Equipment 36
5.1.2 Energy Production and Capacity Factor 37
5.2 Financial Assessment 37
5.2.1 Initial and Periodical Costs 38
5.2.2 Financial Parameters 39
5.2.3 Economic Profitability Analysis 42
5.2.4 Financial Assessment Results 43
5.3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment 45
5.4 Sensitivity Analysis Assessment 47
Chapter 6. Conclusion and Recommendations 49
6.1 Conclusion 49
6.2 Recommendations 50
Bibliography …………………………………………………………………………….……….51
APPENDIX A: Gross Domestic Product by Economic Activity of St Kitts & Nevis from 1997 to 2016 ………………………………………………………………………………….….55

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指導教授

吳俊諆(Jiunn-Chi Wu)

審核日期

2018-7-16

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