同化雷達觀測與反演變數改善模式對流尺度 降雨預報能力：探討OSSE與真實個案

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鄭羽廷(Yu-Ting Cheng) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

大氣科學學系

論文名稱

同化雷達觀測與反演變數改善模式對流尺度降雨預報能力：探討OSSE與真實個案

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摘要(中)

本研究探討如何使用都卜勒雷達資料改善複雜地形區域之降雨預報，透過觀測系統模擬實驗(Observing Systems Simulation Experiment, OSSE)測試得知水氣變數之重要性，因此本研究設計了一系列程序用來調整水氣。透過多都卜勒雷達風場合成方法(Wind Synthesis System using Doppler Measurement, WISSDOM)、熱動力反演與水氣溫度調整，反演複雜地形上的三維風、壓力、溫度與水氣場並同化進WRF，分別使用兩個真實個案探討反演變數是否可提升極短期降雨預報能力，第一個個案是2008年6月14日在台灣南部SoWMEX(South West Monsoon EXperiment)實驗期間的西南季風劇烈降水個案，而第二個是2014年8月19日在台灣北部發生的午後熱對流個案。
　　由第一個個案預報結果顯示，同化雷達觀測與反演變數可維持一段時間的雨帶結構並改善模式降雨強度與分布；第二個個案則顯示水氣調整可重現對流系統之細微結構，雖然預報結果有捕捉到台北地區的強降雨，但局部地區仍存在預報錯誤。
　　本研究的優點是所有方法皆可直接應用於地形上。此外，僅使用來自兩次體積掃描的雷達資料，即可改進模式極短期降雨預報。

摘要(英)

This research discusses rainfall forecast improvement over mountainous regions using Doppler radar data. Through OSSE(Observing Systems Simulation Experiment) tests the importance of vapor is first identified. As a result, a procedure for adjusting vapor is designed. By assimilating three-dimensional meteorological fields obtained from multiple-Doppler radar wind synthesis and thermodynamic retrieval as well as vapor adjustment into WRF, the impact on rainfall forecast for two real cases are investigated. The first case is the heavy precipitation of a southwest monsoon event occurring on 14 June, 2008 in southern Taiwan during SoWMEX (South West Monsoon EXperiment), while the second case is an afternoon thunderstorm event occurring on 19 August, 2014 in northern Taiwan.
The forecast results of the first case show that the rainbands’ structure could be maintained for a period of time and the rainfall intensity and distribution are also improved after assimilating the radar observed and retrieved parameters. The second case demonstrates that the vapor adjustment scheme is able to reproduce some of the fine structures of the convective systems. Extreme rainfall in Taipei is well captured, but false alarm does exist.
The advantage of the methods developed in this research is that they can be applied directly over terrain. In addition, radar data from only two volume scans are sufficient and can be efficiently used to improve the model very short-term rainfall forecast.

關鍵字(中)

★ 觀測系統模擬實驗
★ 熱動力反演
★ 水氣調整

關鍵字(英)

論文目次

中文摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iii
表目錄 v
圖目錄 v
第一章緒論 1
1.1 前言 1
1.2 文獻回顧 1
第二章使用資料與研究方法 4
2.1 雷達觀測資料 4
2.1.1 七股雷達(RCCG) 4
2.1.2 SPOL 雷達(SPOL) 4
2.1.3 墾丁雷達(RCKT) 4
2.1.4 五分山雷達(RCWF) 5
2.1.5 中大雷達(NCU) 5
2.2 都卜勒雷達風場合成 5
2.2.1 價值函數 6
2.2.2 沉浸邊界法(Immersed Boundary Method, IBM) 10
2.3 熱動力反演 10
2.4 溫度場及水氣調整 13
2.4.1 回波-相對濕度統計 13
2.5 定量校驗方法 15
第三章觀測系統模擬實驗 17
3.1 實驗設計 17
3.2 各組實驗結果 19
第四章 SoWMEX個案分析、反演與預報 22
4.1 2008 年西南氣流實驗(SOWMEX) IOP#8 1200UTC 個案 22
4.2 模式設定、使用資料與背景場 22
4.2.1 模式設定 22
4.2.2 使用資料 23
4.2.3 背景場 23
4.3 反演驗證與分析 23
4.3.1 反演風場投影之驗證 23
4.3.2 渦度方程診斷 24
4.3.3 反演場分析 24
4.4 預報實驗設計 25
4.5 預報結果 26
第五章午後熱對流個案分析、反演與預報 28
5.1 2014 年08 月19 日北部弱綜觀午後熱對流個案 28
5.2 模式設定、使用資料與背景場 28
5.2.1 模式設定 28
5.2.2 使用資料 29
5.2.3 背景場 29
5.3 反演驗證與分析 29
5.3.1 反演風場投影之驗證 29
5.3.2 渦度方程診斷 30
5.3.3 背景風場同化驗證 30
5.3.4 反演場分析 31
5.4 預報實驗設計 31
5.5 預報結果 32
第六章結語與未來展望 34
6.1 結語 34
6.2 未來展望 35
參考文獻 37
附表 41
附圖 43

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指導教授

廖宇慶(Yu-Chieng Liou)

審核日期

2019-7-19

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