以強震發生等機率線和虛擬地震目錄驗證最強地震圓弧雙交叉理論在台灣地區的預測效率

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姓名

簡子琦(Tzu-Chi CHIEN) 查詢紙本館藏

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土木工程學系

論文名稱

以強震發生等機率線和虛擬地震目錄驗證最強地震圓弧雙交叉理論在台灣地區的預測效率
(Evaluation of efficiency of prediction of the theory of the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes by using the isoprobability contours of the occurrence of strong earthquakes and the virtual catalogs of earthquakes around Taiwan.)

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摘要(中)

李顯智老師由材料受力時會沿著材料中的弱點及缺陷處出現裂縫的應力集中現象聯想到地殼以及地震的相互關係，發想出代表地殼脆弱性指標的最強地震圓弧雙交叉理論。本研究利用程式選取從1973年至2017年的地震目錄進行分析，並將結果與30份保留總能量釋放及發生深度，打亂時間及空間分布的虛擬地震目錄分析結果進行對照驗證。發現當搜尋區間設定為四年、地震篩選條件為深度70公里內、地震圓弧徑向誤差0.015、度向誤差0.1時，隔天可確認的最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉在時間間隔70天以上的預測成功機率遠高於虛擬地震目錄之結果，間接說明了最強地震圓弧雙交叉理論有相當大的機率具有力學意義。另外，等機率線分析也顯示關鍵預測半徑約為90公里，關鍵時間間隔約為100天，此二特性可解釋為地震圓弧雙交叉點附近產生應力集中現象，並在空間及時間都有局部化的特性，強烈的暗示最強地震圓弧雙交叉理論具有應力集中的意義。期望後續研究可以取得更多有效樣本，並比較更多參數優化預測模型，將此理論轉變為地震災害預防的有效利器。

摘要(英)

This research thinks that the interaction of crusts and earthquakes is similar to plates with defects which can highly affect the strength in particular arrangement. Professor Hin-Chi Lei proposed a concept named strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDICAE) which might be used as an important index of fragility of crusts. In this paper, SDICAEs are constructed by a MATLAB program named ASICAE with earthquake event around Taiwan from 1973 to 2017. In the other hand, 30 virtual earthquake event lists which conserves the total energy but randomize the spatial coordinate and time data are analyzed by ASICAE. Found that in the condition of search interval is four years, search depth between 0 to 70 km, TOLRe = 0.015, TOLde = 0.01, the prediction efficiency of true earthquake list is much higher than virtual earthquake event lists in the condition of double convex arc in 70 days. Furthermore, the isoprobability contours shows that the key search radius is 90 km, key time interval is 100 days. These results mean there might be stress concentration around the intersection point of SDICAE and Strongly implies that SDICAE might contain mechanical meaning. Hope the result of this paper will be the foundation of more accurate and more precise model to reduce earthquake hazard.

關鍵字(中)

★ 最強地震圓弧雙交叉
★ 防災

關鍵字(英)

★ Strongest Double Intersection of Circular Arcs of Earthquakes
★ Disaster prevention

論文目次

摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
誌謝 iii
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 xiii
一、緒論 1
二、研究方法與內容 2
1. 地震目錄 2
2. 地震圓弧介紹 3
3. 地震預測分析 5
4. ASICAE 7
5. 理論驗證 9
三、台灣地區地震紀錄的最強地震圓弧雙交叉案例分析 11
1. 不完全交叉 11
2. 隔天無法確認的完全交叉 52
3. 隔天可確認的完全交叉 69
四、預測結果統計分析和驗證 94
1. 規模5.7以上強震預測 94
2. 規模6.0以上強震預測 101
3. 虛擬地震目錄生成 108
4. 理論驗證數據 111
4-1 決定樣本數 111
4-2 數據結果 114
4-3 數據分析 169
5. 時間間隔-預測半徑-預測成功率等機率圖分析 175
五、結論與未來研究方向 187
六、參考文獻 189
七、附錄 190
附錄一、本研究使用之程式碼 190
附錄二、虛擬地震目錄隔天可確認完全交叉預測規模5.7以上強震之結果 192

參考文獻

[1] I. Alcántara-Ayala, “Geomorphology, natural hazards, vulnerability and prevention of natural disasters in developing countries,” Geomorphology, vol. 47, no. 2–4, pp. 107–124, Oct. 2002, doi: 10.1016/S0169-555X(02)00083-1.
[2] D. C. Alexander, Natural disasters. Routledge, 2017.
[3] B. E. Montz, G. A. Tobin, and R. R. Hagelman, Natural hazards: explanation and integration. Guilford Publications, 2017.
[4] CRED, “Natural Disasters 2018.” 2019.
[5] H. C. Lei and C. W. Tang, “Circular Arcs and Curvilinear Distributions of Events of Earthquakes in Taiwan,” in The Thirteenth National Conference on Structural Engineering/The Third National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Taoyuan, Taiwan, ROC, 2016.
[6] H. C. Lei, “Circles, Circular Arcs and Lines of Earthquakes Around Taiwan,” in The 40th National Conference on Theoretical and Applied Mechanics, Hsinchu, Taiwan, ROC, 2016.
[7] H. C. Lei, “Circles, Circular Arcs and Lines of Earthquakes Around Taiwan (II): Magnitude and Time,” in 2017 the 15th Conference on Land Studies, Tainan, Taiwan, ROC, 2017.
[8] H. C. Lei, “Some Ideas for Constructing Significant Intersections of Circular Arcs of Earthquakes,” in Taiwan-Japan Joint Symposium on the Advancement of Urban Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Technology, Taoyuan, Taiwan, ROC, 2017.
[9] H. C. Lei et al., “An Elementary Evaluation of the Efficiency of a Method of Earthquake Prediction by Intersections of Circular Arcs of Earthquakes around Taiwan,” in The 2017 Taiwan-Japan Joint Symposium on the Advancement of Urban Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Technology, Taoyuan, Taiwan, ROC, 2017.
[10] H. C. Lei, “Strongest Double Intersections of Circular Arcs of Earthquakes around Taiwan,” in The 23rd Forum on Land Use and Planning, Tainan, Taiwan, ROC, 2019.
[11] “中央氣象局地震測報中心.” [Online]. Available: https://scweb.cwb.gov.tw/zh-tw/earthquake/data/.
[12] H. C. Lei, “Prediction of Strong Earthquakes around Taiwan by Intersection Point of SDCICAE Close to Evmax,” in The 2019 Taiwan-Japan Joint Symposium on the Advancement of Urban Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Technology, Taoyuan, Taiwan, ROC, 2019.
[13] H. C. Lei, ASICAE by HinChi Lei to find the strongest intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes., https://youtu.be/tvgYLpoH9T4. 2019.

指導教授

李顯智(Hin-Chi Lei)

審核日期

2020-4-13

推文