風暴潮、潮汐與波浪耦合模式之發展及西北太平洋強烈颱風事件之應用

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姓名	蔡育霖(Yu-Lin Tsai) 查詢紙本館藏	畢業系所	水文與海洋科學研究所
論文名稱	風暴潮、潮汐與波浪耦合模式之發展及西北太平洋強烈颱風事件之應用 (Development of Storm Surge, Tide, and Wind Wave Coupling Model and Application for Severe Typhoon Events in Northwestern Pacific Ocean)
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摘要(中)	本研究以風暴潮、潮汐和風浪數值耦合模式，探討西北太平洋強烈颱風造成之風暴潮，在潮汐和風浪影響下，由遠洋至近岸之完整水動力傳遞過程。本研究基於長波海嘯模式COMCOT (COrnell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami)，發展多重網格風暴潮模式COMCOT-SURGE，可完整模擬風暴潮由生成、傳遞至淹溢等物理過程，並與全球天文潮模式TPXO8-atlas和近岸風浪模式SWAN (Simulating WAve Nearshore) 耦合，於風暴潮模擬內考慮天文潮和波浪能量消散後之輻射應力。本研究利用線性長波於均勻水深之傳播和孤立波圓島溯上等基準案例，驗證COMCOT-SURGE多重耦合巢狀網格之數值穩定性及移動邊界之準確性；此外，COMCOT-SURGE亦與實際觀測水位、全球天文潮模式和調和分析水位等資料比對，驗證其潮汐模擬功能之精準度。待模式驗證後，本研究選訂2015年臺灣東岸登陸之強烈颱風蘇迪勒和杜鵑進行個案分析，且因觀測潮位資料指出颱風期間臺灣東岸有較顯著風暴潮，最大水位抬升高於潮汐約0.8至1.2公尺，因此，本研究針對臺灣東岸、東北岸和東南岸進行重點討論。本研究以歐洲中期天氣預報中心第5代再分析氣象場ECMWF ERA5，驅動風暴潮和風浪模擬，並先以臺灣環海觀測之浮標氣象資料，驗證ERA5風場之準確性，降低後續水動力模擬之可能誤差。耦合模式模擬結果與風暴潮、總水位、示性波高、平均週期、平均波向等觀測資料，均有良好比對結果。本研究亦發現，蘇迪勒颱風和杜鵑颱風登陸期間，臺灣東部沿岸之輻射應力，高於風剪力1至2個量級，且與近岸水位抬升處有高度重合性。本研究進一步透過耦合數值實驗，分析輻射應力對近岸風暴潮之影響，研究結果顯示，臺灣東岸、東北岸和東南岸由風浪能量消散後造成之輻射應力，可使蘇迪勒和杜鵑颱風期間之最大風暴潮高，放大20至50%左右 (約0.1至0.5公尺之水位抬升)，顯示輻射應力對於臺灣東部沿岸之風暴潮模擬是不可缺少的。最後，本研究糞望建立未來風暴潮研究之基準案例，透過蘇迪勒颱風和杜鵑颱風個案，提供未來研究完整之數值模擬結果以及詳盡之潮位及浮標觀測資料，奠定未來風暴潮耦合研究之基石。
摘要(英)	This study aims to better understand storm surges due to a severe typhoon from the Western Pacific Ocean propagating from offshore to nearshore with tides and wind waves using a surge-tide-wave coupling model. This study developed the multi-grid COMCOT-SURGE storm surge model based on the well-validated COMCOT (COrnell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami) tsunami model. COMCOT-SURGE can simulate storm surges from offshore to nearshore, including the full physical processes from generation, propagation, to inundation. Furthermore, COMCOT-SURGE has been coupled with the global tide TPXO8-atlas model and nearshore spectral wave SWAN (Simulating WAve Nearshore) model to consider astronomical tides and wave-enhanced radiation stresses. Linear long wave propagation on a constant water depth and solitary wave runup on a circular island were used to validate the grid nesting function and moving boundary scheme of COMCOT-SURGE. Besides, the accuracy of simulating tides was convinced by validating the modeled tides against observations, TPXO8-atlas, and harmonic analysis. After examining the storm surge model, this study chose the 2015 severe Typhoons Soudelor and Dujuan as case studies. This study focused the discussions on the eastern regions of Taiwan, where the notable storm surges of 0.8–1.2 m were measured from tide gauges in these two typhoon events. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA5 was used to drive surge-tide-wave coupling simulations after being validated by the buoy weather data to minimize the possible error from the inputs. The simulation results agreed with the observed storm surges, water levels, significant wave heights, mean wave periods, and mean wave directions. Besides, the wave-enhanced radiation stress gradient was more considerable than the wind shear stress by one to two orders of magnitude during the passage of Typhoons Soudelor and Dujuan. Thus, this study further carried out numerical experiments to examine the radiation stress effect on coastal storm surges in eastern Taiwan. The results showed that the wave-enhanced radiation stresses contributed to the peak storm surges by about 20–50% along the east coasts of Taiwan during the passage of Typhoons Soudelor and Dujuan. It implies that the radiation stress gradient is vital to predict coastal storm surges on Taiwan’s northeast, east, and southeast coasts. This study hopes to pave the way for future storm surge research by providing the complete surge-tide-wave coupling simulations and a detailed dataset of observed tide gauge data and buoy data.
關鍵字(中)	★ 風暴潮-潮汐-風浪耦合模式 ★ COMCOT-SURGE ★ SWAN ★ TPXO8-atlas ★ 2015年蘇迪勒颱風 ★ 2015年杜鵑颱風	關鍵字(英)	★ Surge-Tide-Wave Coupling Model ★ COMCOT-SURGE ★ SWAN ★ TPXO8-atlas ★ Typhoon Soudelor ★ Typhoon Dujuan
論文目次	CHINESE ABSTRACT/中文摘要 i ABSTRACT ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS/誌謝 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS v LIST OF FIGURES ix LIST OF TABLES xxix CHAPTER 1—INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Overview 1 1.2 Review for Mechanisms of Generating Storm Surges and Their Roles in Modeling 3 1.2.1 Meteorological Forces 3 1.2.1.1 Sea-Level Pressures and Surface Winds 3 1.2.1.2 Surface Wind-Drag Coefficient 3 1.2.1.3 Storm Characteristics 4 1.2.1.4 Accuracy of Wind Fields 4 1.2.2 Wave Effect 5 1.2.2.1 Wind Wave Contributions to Storm Surges 5 1.2.2.2 Model Coupling for Storm Surges and Wind Waves 6 1.2.3 Tide Effect 9 1.2.4 Coriolis Effect 9 1.2.5 Bathymetry Effect 10 1.2.6 Summary 11 1.3 Review for Storm Surge Studies in Taiwan 12 1.3.1 Background 12 1.3.2 Interactions of Storm Surges with Wind Waves and Tides in Taiwan 14 1.3.3 Wind’s Accuracy to Storm Surge and Wave Modeling in Taiwan 16 1.3.4 Summary 17 1.4 Purpose of This Study 18 CHAPTER 2—NESTED-GRID SURGE-TIDE-WAVE COUPLING MODEL 19 2.1. Depth-Integrated Storm Surge and Tide Model—COMCOT-SURGE 19 2.1.1 Governing Equations of the Depth-Integrated Model 20 2.1.2 Discretization of the Depth-Integrated Time-Averaged Model 24 2.1.3 Open Boundary Condition 33 2.1.3.1 Radiation Boundary Condition 33 2.1.3.2 Open Boundary Condition for Storm Surges and Tides 34 2.1.4 Moving Boundary Scheme 35 2.1.4.1 Categorization for Wet and Dry Cells 35 2.1.4.2 Moving Shoreline Algorithm 36 2.1.5 Multi-Grid Nesting Scheme 39 2.1.5.1 Grid Nesting in the Spatial Domain 40 2.1.5.2 Grid Nesting in the Temporal Domain 43 2.2 Wind Wave Module—SWAN 46 2.2.1 Governing Equations in the Cartesian Coordinate 46 2.2.2 Finite-Difference Method Discretization in the Cartesian Coordinate 47 2.2.3 Source/Sink Terms 49 2.2.3.1 Wind Input (Sin) 49 2.2.3.2 Dissipation Terms (Sds) 50 2.2.3.3 Wave-Wave Interaction Terms (Snl) 52 2.2.4 Radiation Stresses 53 2.3 Wind-Drag Coefficient 54 2.4 Tide Module—TPXO8-atlas 55 2.5 Model Coupling among Storm Surges, Tides, and Waves 56 2.5.1 Features of Surge-Tide-Wave Coupling Model 56 2.5.2 Framework of Model Coupling Procedure 57 2.5.3 Grids between Storm Surge and Spectral Wave Models 59 CHAPTER 3—DEPTH-INTEGRATED MODEL VALIDATION 60 3.1 Linear Long Wave Propagating on a Constant Water Depth 60 3.1.1 Goals of Numerical Experiments 60 3.1.2 Incident Soliton-Like Wave 60 3.1.3 Normal Incidence of Linear Long Wave 63 3.1.3.1 Computational Setting 63 3.1.3.2 Numerical Experiments for Uniform Grids 65 3.1.3.3 Numerical Experiments for Nested Grids 83 3.1.3.4 Coupled and Uncoupled Grid-Nesting Effect 91 3.1.4 Oblique Incidence of Linear Long Wave 96 3.1.4.1 Computational Settings 96 3.1.4.2 The 45-Degree Oblique Soliton-Like Wave Incidence 99 3.1.4.3 The 60-Degree Oblique Soliton-Like Wave Incidence 105 3.1.4.4 Coupled and Uncoupled Grid-Nesting Effect 111 3.1.5 Summary 114 3.2 Solitary Wave Runup on a Circular Island 115 3.2.1 Introduction 115 3.2.2 Numerical Settings 115 3.2.3 Computed Free Surface Elevations around the Circular Island 120 3.2.4 Comparisons of Free Surface Elevations at Wave Gauges 128 3.2.5 Comparisons of Runup Heights on the Circular Island 132 3.2.6 Summary 136 3.3 Validation of Astronomical Tide Simulation 137 3.3.1 Purpose of the Validation 137 3.3.2 Computational Settings 137 3.3.3 Comparison of Tides between COMCOT-SURGE and TPXO8-atlas 142 3.3.4 Comparison of Tides between COMCOT-SURGE and Observed/Harmonic Data 151 3.3.5 Summary 156 CHAPTER 4—CASE STUDY FOR THE 2015 TYPHOON SOUDELOR 157 4.1 2015 Typhoon Soudelor 157 4.2 Analyzing Observed Storm Surges during Typhoon Soudelor 160 4.3 10-m Winds and Sea-Level Pressures of Typhoon Soudelor and Their Validations 165 4.3.1 The Reanalysis Data–ECMWF ERA5 165 4.3.2 ERA5 10-m Winds and Sea-Level Pressures during the 2015 Typhoon Soudelor 165 4.3.3 Comparisons between ERA5 and Observation Data from Buoys 170 4.4 Hindcast Simulation for Storm Surges, Tides, and Wind Waves of the 2015 Typhoon Soudelor 183 4.4.1 Computational Settings for Surge-Tide-Wave Coupled Modeling 183 4.4.2 Tide Validation 188 4.4.3 Wind Waves 193 4.4.4 Storm Tides and Storm Surges 211 CHAPTER 5—CASE STUDY FOR THE 2015 TYPHOON DUJUAN 225 5.1 2015 Typhoon Dujuan 225 5.2 Analyzing Observed Storm Surges during Typhoon Dujuan 228 5.3 10-m Winds and Sea-Level Pressures of Typhoon Dujuan and Their Validations 233 5.3.1 ERA5 10-m Winds and Sea-Level Pressures during the 2015 Typhoon Dujuan 233 5.3.2 Comparisons between ERA5 and Observation Data from Buoys 237 5.4 Hindcast Simulations for Storm Surges, Tides, and Wind Waves of the 2015 Typhoon Dujuan 249 5.4.1 Computational Settings for Surge-Tide-Wave Coupled Modeling 249 5.4.2 Tide Validation 249 5.4.3 Wind Waves 254 5.4.4 Storm Tides and Storm Surges 270 CHAPTER 6—A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF WAVE EFFECT TO COASTAL STORM SURGES DURING THE 2015 TYPHOONS SOUDELOR AND DUJUAN 283 6.1. Wave Effect to Storm Surges during Typhoon Soudelor 283 6.2 Wave Effect to Storm Surges during Typhoon Dujuan 288 6.3 Comparisons of Wave Effect between Typhoons Soudelor and Dujuan 292 CHAPTER 7—CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORKS 294 7.1 Conclusions 294 7.2 Future Works 297 APPENDIX A—INTEGRATED OBSERVATIONS FOR TIDE GAUGES AND BUOYS 300 A.1 Observations at Tide Gauges 300 A.2 Observations at Buoys 303 APPENDIX B—STATISTICAL ANALYSIS 306 APPENDIX C—MOVING-AVERAGE METHOD FOR OBSERVED STORM SURGES 307 APPENDIX D—10-M WIND CONVERSION 308 APPENDIX E—DATA QUALITY CONTROL FOR MEASURED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UNDER A TROPICAL CYCLONE 311 APPENDIX F—DISSERTATION DEFENSE RECORDS AND RESPONSES TO REVIEW COMMENTS 313 F.1 Basic Information of Dissertation Defense 313 F.2 Review Comments #1 (Dr. Chuen-Teyr Terng) 314 F.3 Review Comments #2 (Dr. Shih-Chun Hsiao) 317 F.4 Review Comments #3 (Dr. Hwa Chien) 320 F.5 Review Comments #4 (Dr. Iam-Fei Pun) 324 F.6 Review Comments #5 (Dr. Tai-Wen Hsu) 328 F.7 Review Comments #6 (Dr. Philip Li-Fan Liu) 331 F.8 Review Comments #7 (Dr. Tso-Ren Wu) 333 REFERENCES 334
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指導教授	吳祚任劉立方(Tso-Ren Wu Philip Li-Fan Liu)	審核日期	2021-10-28
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