| 摘要(英) |
Riders accidents in Taiwan account for 60% of all accidents on average each year. Intersection where traffic flows are important places. The safety of each intersection has a huge impact on passerby. The negative impact on the safety of passerby and the loss of time as well as finance are issues that cannot be ignored. If improvements can be made from left-turning riders, it will help to reduce accidents to a considerable extent.
In this study, the time interval between incidents of directly left-turning riders at the intersection are seen as the observation time for survival analysis, and the Cox proportional hazard model in the survival theory is used to analyze the impact factors of the accident. Influenced factors are divided into roads, environment, traffic flow, traffic control, drivers, and other characteristics. Significant variables are figured out through pattern testing, relative risk analysis, and median survival time. Measuring the substantial benefit of change in explanatory variables can increase survival time.
The results show that the significant variables verified by the model, the smaller of the intersection width, the greater of the relative humidity, the male, the riding of an ordinary light motorcycle, and the occurrence of the intersection accident in metropolitan area, will reduce the survival time of direct left turn motorcycle accident at the intersection. On the contrary, if the intersection is equipped with a central separation facility, the inner lane is drawn with a left turn directional line, there is a left-turn protection phase, and the road is dry, will extend the survival time of direct left turn motorcycle accident at the intersection. In addition, in the results of multi-factor analysis. it was found that adjusting the inside lane markings and turn signs at the same time, have the best effect to extend survival time. In the case of intersection scenario analysis, the relative risk changing value of each intersection is compared, and the safety characteristics of the types of intersections are evaluated. It can be used as reference for reducing the risk of directly left-turning riders accident. |
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