| 摘要(英) |
The theory of the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDICAE) proposed by Hin-Chi Lei in 2019 is applied to analyze the records of the earthquake events from 1981 to 2016 provided by the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan. The earthquake events are classified into several groups according to different ranges of depths such as 0-30Km, 0-70Km, and 0-110Km. The searching period for the events is set to be four years. The efficiencies of the predictions of strong earthquakes by using the SDICAEs searched by adopting different ranges of depths are evaluated. We try to find out the best choice of the range of depth which can give us the highest hit rate of the prediction of strong earthquake occurred within 70days after the formation of the SDICAE.
It is found that, when the range of depth is 0-70Km, the arc-direction precision parameter TOLde is 0.13 and 0.14, and the radial direction precision parameter TOLRe is 0.014, 0.015, and 0.016, the prediction efficiency is the best, and the hit rate of the prediction of strong earthquake within 70 days reaches 80%. Moreover, the hit rates of the predictions of strong earthquakes within 70 days corresponding to all the three choice of ranges of depths are higher than the background value of the strong earthquake occurrence rate. This shows that the formation of the SDICAE in the crust is mechanically meaningful. |
| 參考文獻 |
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【14】 H.C.Lei, “ Strongest Double Intersections of Circular Arcs of Earthquakes around Taiwan,” The 23rd Forum on Land Use and Planning, Tainan, Taiwan, 2019.
【15】 H.C.Lei, “Prediction of Strong Earthquakes around Taiwan by Intersection Point of SDCICAE Close to Evmax, ” The 2019 Taiwan-Japan Joint Symposium on the Advancement of Urban Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Technology, Taoyuan, Taiwan, 2019.
【16】 H.C.Lei, “ASICAE by HinChi Lei to find the strongest intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes,” 2019. [線上]. Available: https://youtu.be/tvgYLpoH9T4. |
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