摘要(英) |
We apply the MATLAB program ASICAE to search for the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDICAEs) proposed by Hin-Chi Lei and analyze the rules of the strong earthquakes with magnitudes over 5.7 occurring after the SDICAEs. The search period is set from 1980 to 2016 and the focal depth is from 0 to 20 km. We look for the SDICAEs formed by events occurring in four years (dY=4) while the arc-direction error (TOLdePar) is from 0.09 to 0.15 and the radial direction error (TOLRePar) is from 0.012 to 0.016. The search area is from 21.7°N to 25.5°N and is bounded by two oblique lines cutting the eastern and western sea-land borders of Taiwan and confining the search area for the SDICAEs to a region containing mainly the island of Taiwan. Furthermore, we gradually reduce the minimum value of the event magnitude (Mmin) from 4.9 to 2.0, and thus successfully predict some historical strong earthquakes in Taiwan by using the SDICAEs.
In addition, it is found that the strongest double-convex intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDCICAE) shows an excellent prediction of strong earthquakes within 70 days when Mmin equals 2, TOLdePar is from 0.09 to 0.11, and TOLRePar is from 0.014 to 0.016. Similarly, the strongest concave-convex intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SCCICAE) also shows an outstanding prediction of strong earthquakes within 70 days when Mmin equals 2, TOLdePar is from 0.11 to 0.15, and TOLRePar is from 0.012 to 0.014. For some of the settings of precision parameters, the best hit rate can reach 100%. Moreover, a special screening method by deleting the intersections with large radius ratios is adopted to increase the hit rate of short-term prediction. For example, after deleting the SCCICAEs with the radius ratios greater than 1.4, there are only seven SCCICAEs remained and it is found that these SCCICAEs provide a better efficiency of prediction of strong earthquakes within 40 days, and the hit rate reaches 57%. |
參考文獻 |
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