摘要(英) |
This research evaluates the strong earthquake prediction by the theory of the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDICAE) proposed by Hin-Chi Lei. The earthquake catalog from 1980 to 2016 is taken from the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan. The analyzed area is bouded by two lines of 21.7 and 25.5 degrees north latitude, and also by two oblique lines y = 1.5 (x - 121) + 25 and y = 3.2143 (x - 120.7) + 21 with x and y standing for longitude and latitude respectively. The oblique line cuts through the eastern coast is close to the boundry between the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Plate. The parameter dY is varied from 2 to 6 years, ToLdePar is set to be 0.09, 0.11, 0.13, 0.15, and ToLRePar is set to be 0.012, 0.014, 0.016. The SDICAES are formed by th events with magnitudes over 4 and depths smaller than 20 km, while the strong earthquakes predicted by them are of magnitudes over 5.7 and depths smaller than 70 km. It is found that the efficiency of the strong earthquake prediction can be improved by deleting some of the SDICAEs with certain values of radius ratios. Especially, when dY is equal to 3 and 4, the efficiencies of the strong earthquake predictions made by using SDCICAEs with very small radius ratios, or SCCICAEs with very large radius ratios are quite remarkable. |
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