| 摘要: | 轉業指的是廠商退出既存產業而參進另一個產業， 它綜合文獻中最常被討論的退出與參進行為而呈現廠商動態的多樣性; 同時，大量的實證資料也顯示轉業是一個普遍的現象。 然而，既存文獻卻非常缺乏對轉業的正式探討。 由於既存文獻忽略了轉業，亦即忽略轉業廠商轉業前與轉業後的狀況， 所以他們無法嚴謹而完整地刻畫廠商的動態決策過程，這進而可能產生對產業發展的錯誤推論。 鑑於此，本論文就聚焦在轉業的理論與實證研究。 首先，我們利用投入產出表中的產業相依係數創立一個轉業程度指標來描述廠商如何進行轉業。 此指標改進傳統分類方法的缺點而能一致地量化個別廠商具異質性的的轉業行為。 在此指標的基礎上，我們接著利用 Heckman 的兩階段估計法以及分量迴歸方法 對 $1986$ 到 $1991$ 年間的台灣電力及電子機械器材製造修配業進行研究。 實證結果顯示產業的成長率與集中度以及廠商年齡、規模與生產力皆會影響廠商的轉業決策。 另外，這些因素對轉業程度的影響效果隨著廠商的轉業程度不同而異。 最後，我們延伸既有的模型，使轉業變成廠商在續留與退出之外另一個內生的選擇。 透過廠商因素、產業因素以及市場條件等的交互作用，轉業模型形成續留、失敗與轉業廠商。 轉業模型的均衡可以解釋在實證上發現但卻被既存廠商動態理論所忽略的一些現象， 同時也可以對產業發展提供正確的推論。 Industry-switching occurs as firms exit one industry and then enter another industry. Due to the combination of exit and entry which are two core issues in traditional industrial economics, industry-switching shows the multiplicity of firm dynamics. In addition, a large number of empirical results display that it spreads widely in reality. However, a formal study on industry-switching is almost absent from the literature. Owing to the ignorance of industry-switching, i.e. neglecting industry-switching firms’ pre-switching and post-switching situations, existing researches are incapable of rigorously and completely capturing firms’ dynamic decision process, which is likely to cause incorrect inference for industry development. In view of this, this dissertation focuses on the theoretical and empirical study on industry-switching First, we utilize the interdependence coefficients in the input-output table to create an industry-switching degree index (ISDI) to describe how firms switch among industries. ISDI improves disadvantages in the traditional categorization method to unify and quantify each individual firm’s heterogeneous industry-switching behavior. Based on ISDI, we then employ Heckman’s two-step estimation and the quantile regression technique to investigate the industryswitching behavior among Taiwan’s electronics manufacturing industries during 1986 to 1991. Empirical results exhibit that industry growth rate, concentration rate, firm age, scale, and productivity affect firms’ switching decision. Moreover, the effect of each of these determinants vary with firms’ degree of industry-switching. At last, we extend existing theoretical model to allow industry-switching to also be an endogenous decision other than staying and exiting decisions. In equilibrium, an interaction among firm characteristics, industry characteristics, and market conditions shapes the staying, failure, and industry-switching choices. Our industry-switching model enables us to explain some stylized facts that are observed by us but can not be interpreted by the literature. Furthermore, it provides with the correct inference for industry development. |
