| 摘要: | 摘 要 上市與上櫃公司的財務報表與買賣技術分析指標是做為最佳化選股策略及擇時進場買賣優質股票之重要依據，兩者都與投資人期望之獲利績效有著極大的關係。財務報表所顯示之資訊，其代表的意義是公司營運成果階段性的總結，不僅能提供診斷企業體質及獲利能力的有效數據，其在投資人進行最後決策選擇時，它也是一項重要的憑據。而買賣技術分析指標則是擇時進場買賣優質股票的另一項重要參考，依其指標之示意，可增加獲利率並降低風險之發生。我們以科學的方法將其做系統性的分析、比較與評估，尋找出最佳可投資的股票與最佳的進出(買賣)時間點、次數、風險成本之控管及投資金額分配比例等，除了可以改善以往只憑經驗、感覺或聽聞，就據以進行買賣決策的習慣或模式之外，也能讓投資人在風險最低的狀況下獲得最大或趨近於最大的利益。 在此研究領域中，若我們能夠正確掌握各項有影響性參數及限制條件的變化，再用適宜的數學模式規劃出某一段時間之區間內，依據最佳化原理適時的發展一套標準可行的最佳投資評估模式，以即時提供投資人做為選擇買賣決策時的參考。本模式是針對股票市場之營建產業類各種股票過去二年財務報表相關影響因子的歷史數據、今年的預估值及依規定逐次公布之月、季、半年、年報現況數據作為推算及檢驗的基礎，並依其計算所得的加權分數篩選出本質最佳之三種股票作為投資之標的。為降低風險並避免將所有的雞蛋放在同一個籃子裡的高危險狀況發生，預先給予各股不同的必要限制條件後，再為其建立適當週延完整的數學模式；繼而透過LINGO 7.0求解程式求得最佳之買賣張數、時點、次數、投資金額分配比例及最大利潤；然後再運用敏感度分析技巧與實務範例測試其差異，得知本研究之結果與績效可以讓投資人因應股票市場的需求變化並作為選擇最佳決策與預測未來股價變化之判斷依據。 Abstract The financial statement and buying/selling technological analysis are important basis of buying and selling high-quality Stocks on TAIEX and TAISDAQ and as an optimization of selecting stock tactically, both of two has great relation in profit-making performance of investor's expectation. The information of the financial statement represents the summary of a company's performance during a certain period, and can offer the effective data which not merely diagnose enterprise's physique and earning capacity, and help to make the final decision too. Buying / selling technological analysis can indicate when to buy and sell high-quality stocks, in accordance with the hinting of its indicator, also can increase yielding rate and reduce the risk. By making systemic analysis, comparison and judgment, look out for the best time for buying and selling stocks, number of times, risk-cost controlling and the amount, allocation of investment etc., except that also can improve the way of making decision only depending on experience, feeling or hearing to buy and sell stocks by habit in the past, and investors almost can get most interest under the minimum of risk too. In this research field, if we can grasp the change of every influential parameter and limiting condition correctly, and then develop a set of ways of investing assessment according to the principle of optimization in a certain period. That can help investors to make the decision of buying and selling immediately. The model is correlated with the historical influential factors of the financial statement in the past two years, the financial report in advance of this year and the financial statements of month, season, half a year, a year. According to calculating the weighting result, we can choose three kinds of essential stocks. In order to reduce the risk and prevent from putting all eggs in one basket, we should give essential limiting conditions for those stocks, and then we can set up some proper mathematic model. Then through LINGO7.0, we can get the best dealing amount, number of times, proportion of investing allocation and get the most profit. By using the sensitive analysis and practical example, we can test its difference and learn the result, performance of this research. Therefore investors can make the best decision and predict the future change of stock price according to this research. |
