為審視與探究近年台灣地區於中國大陸擴張軍備的威脅下，國防支出對經濟成長的影響，本文首先以延伸Ram-Biswas (1986)理論模型，觀察區分國防部門與非國防政府部門支出相對於民間部門，國防部門具不完全競爭性所呈現較高的因素邊際產出，以及其對民間部門造成之外部性，兩者的加乘效果是否對經濟成長有顯著的影響；再藉由Cobb-Douglas生產函數型態進行模型設定，以瞭解國防支出對總要素生產力(TFP)技術進步的貢獻度；經由以上不同構面論證方法，其實證分析之結果是否呈現一致性及互補性。 於實證研究上為解決解釋變數內生性的問題，以獲得統計上一致性的估計，在應用ADF單根檢定的方法，檢視各主要變數呈現定態後，再採用一般動差法(GMM)來估計上述兩個實證模型；並利用Granger因果檢定法，來驗證各變數間之因果關係。 本文有鑑於國防支出的重大軍事採購等項目甚具爭議，於是引用1974-2005年行政院主計處等機關公佈之國防支出數，並區分為軍事投資與軍事維持兩部門；實證結果呈現，於Ram-Biswas實證模型中之軍事投資與軍事維持對經濟成長均具有統計上顯著正向關係，但於總要素生產力技術進步的貢獻則分別為呈現統計上不顯著及負向關係，基此，本文認為，我國國防支出應考量建軍備戰的優先順序，審慎從事必要的軍事投資與撙節軍事維持，方能將有限國防資源發揮最大的經濟效益。 In the face of the military threaten of Mainland China, the relationship between national defense expenditure and economic growth is an interesting issue in Taiwan. The purpose of this thesis is constructing two macroeconomics models to distinguish the spillover and monopoly effects of defense expenditure on economic growth. The first model we built is under the framework of Ram-Biswas (1986), furthermore, we extend the model in four sectors and use Cobb-Douglas production function to analyze the interaction among non-government, military sector (military investment and military maintain), and non- military government sector. The second model we built is under the framework of Total Factor Productivity. In addition, we study the interaction among R&D, international trade and military sector. Adopting ADF unit root test, we used the yearly data from 1974 to 2005 and observed that the growth rate of expenditure on military investment and military maintain both are stationary. To avoid endogenous problem in estimation, we use Generalied Method of Moment and Granger causality test to identify the relationship among variables within two models. The empirical result is as follows. The expenditure on military investment and military maintain both are positive relate with economic growth. However, spillover effect of military sector on R&D is not conspicuous. We conclude that the expenditure of military sector is not totally crowd out private sector investment; it may support some economic growth. The challenge of later researches is how to identify the channel which is spillover effect of military sector on other non-government sector.
