本計畫之目標為探討次月尺度變化與極端天氣間之互相影響的機制。主要工作將就選定個案分析年(2003 與 2004 兩年),選擇熱帶季內振盪、氣旋波動、東風波活躍期間,透過觀測與模擬分析,探討TC生成與波動的因果關係。觀測分析部分,將利用高解析度衛星觀測與再重分析資料,分析各波動場時空變化特徵、波動與TC生成/活動之觀係;模擬部分,將利用高解析度區域模式,做三組模擬實驗(E1 – 給定初始條件與側邊界條件;E2 – 控制模擬場;E3 – 控制模擬的20天以上低頻場,各組積分時間為一個月),分析模式模擬的TC與波動的關係,並與觀測分析比較驗證模式的結果,探討TC生成與波動的因果關係。 The objective of the proposal is to investigate how the tropical multiscale disturbances (intraseasonal oscillations, synoptic-scale disturbances) interact with tropical cyclones. The proposed tasks include: 1) observational analysis based on high-resolution satellite and assimilation data to examine relevant processes maintaining the multiscale disturbances –TC relation; 2) to perform three types of numerical experiments using a regional model (E1–one-month integration with given lateral boundary condition; E2–model fields controlled by nudging toward observed low-frequency fields ; E3–model low-freqency fields controlled by nudging toward observed low-frequency fields) so the observed wave-TC relation can be compared to and explained by model results. 研究期間:9808 ~ 9907