| 摘要: | 本計畫是「東海長期觀測與研究計畫（三）」整合研究計畫子計畫（十六）。本計畫原本是以三年之連續計畫提出，由於在上網申請時之錯誤，造成本計畫成為一年期計畫。本次申請恢復三年期計畫，以配合總計畫。（註：上網申請時會自動產生三年之經費表，無法改變，所以請審查第一、二年經費即可。）東海在西北太平洋的邊緣海域中具有面積最大的大陸棚，海域範圍內受到長江、亞洲沙塵暴以及黑潮暖流及湧升等重要中大尺度作用的影響，使得內部多元的海洋生態系統變化多端、資源豐富。然而在全球溫室效應持續升高所導致的全球氣候變遷，以及區域性人為作用（如：長江三峽大壩的興建與運轉）等因素的作用下，將可能使得東海成為最易受到環境變遷影響的海域，甚至造成海洋生物地球化學循環與生態系統產生激烈的不可逆變化。本子計畫擬建立東海之生地化模式，以配合總計畫之需要，協助瞭解東海海洋生物地球化學循環與生態系統之運作方式，並探討在自然及人為作用下的反應。此外，可以用以預測未來之改變或探討造成改變之原因。本計畫特別著重長江流量與大氣輸送物質的改變對基礎生產力的影響，並進行長期且有系統的研究；透過各子計畫彼此間的緊密合作，將可完成總計畫裡所設立之共同研究目標與願景。目前模式的發展，在流體動力學水理模式方面已有良好之基礎，並對長江截流可能造成之影響做初步之推測。此外，本子計畫也已經成功的建立以ROMS 為本的新區域模式，可以運用平行計算方式進行較高解析度之模式運算。在地化方面亦有超越過去之雙盒模式，並對東海陸棚之碳通量做重新之估算。針對未來之需求，本計畫擬定下列四項目標： 1. 利用現有東海模式與生地化模式耦合，以模擬長江及黑潮對東海生地化之影響。 2. 改進現有生地化模式，加入碳循環，以探討大陸棚幫浦之作用，並利用生地化觀測結果，強化東海區域性之生態系統模擬。 3. 逐步發展水體-底質之耦合模式，並推動底質成巖作用之觀測及模擬。 4. 推動上層食物鏈之生態模擬，本計畫可以借重GLOBEC 計畫之經驗，藉以探討環境變遷對東海生物資源之可能影響。 This is Subproject #16 of the Long-term Observations and Research of the East China Sea Part III (LORECS-III). This subproject was intended to be a 3-year project, but, due to some unknown error, this subproject was approved as a 1-year project. This application is to re-establish this subproject as a 3-year project to be carried out from August 2006 to July 2009. (Note that the budget form was generated automatically for three years. Please ignore the budget for the third year.) The East China Sea, including the Yellow Sea, has the largest contiguous continental shelf among western Pacific marginal seas. Its domain is strongly affected by meso-scale processes, such as Changjiang discharge, East Asian dust storm, intrusion of the Kuroshio and its topographically induced upwelling in several places. Consequently, its ecosystem is subject to complicated physical as well as chemical forcing and manifests a high degree of variability and diversity. The biogeochemical cycles and the ecosystem structure of the East China Sea may undergo strong irreversible changes due to direct and indirect anthropogenic influences, including the planned operation of the Three-Gorges Dam in 2009 and global warming due to increasing green houses. This subproject is intended to foster the on-going effort of developing a physical-biogeochemical coupled model of the western Pacific marginal seas for the investigation of the ecosystem response to natural as well as anthropogenic changes. In case, any change occurs in future, the model may be used to investigate reasons for the change. Special attention is given to the effects of Changjiang river discharge and aeolian fluxes of dust brought to the East China Sea by the East Asian dust storm. Long-term systematic study and integration of all subprojects of LORECS are expected to achieve the goals set up by the main project. For this subproject, we have already laid down a solid foundation of hydrodynamic model, which is capable of not only simulating the circulation in the East China Sea but also predicting the potential changes in salinity with reduced Changjiang discharge. For more efficient parallel computation and more sophisticated advection scheme, we have successfully adopted the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) to simulate the western North Pacific Ocean with a resolution of 1/4 degree. In the geochemical aspect, we have improved estimates of the East China Sea carbon budget based on a two-box model of the East China Sea shelf. In the future, we propose to perform the following items in the next two years: 1. Couple the existing East China Sea hydrodynamic model with an established biogeochemical module to investigate the basic biogeochemical cycle of the ECS. 2. Improve the existing biogeochemical module by including carbon in the compartments, by experimenting with new ecosystem structures and by incorporating observational findings to the model from LORECS as well as other regional studies. 3. Develop a pelagic-benthic coupled module and advocating observations of diagenetic processes in the benthic layer of the East China Sea. 4. Attempt to extend the biogeochemical model to the upper trophic levels following recommendations of the Global Ocean Ecosystem Study (GLOBEC) in order to explore the possibility of assessing the effect of environmental changes on marine resources. 研究期間：9608 ~ 9707 |
