| 摘要: | 過去產業界曾經嘗試努力以整合供應鏈的活動與流程來創造效率與效能。這些嘗試曾經給被賦予不同的名稱，譬如快速回應(Quick Response)、電子資料交換(Electronic Data Interchange, EDI)、短週期製造(Short Cycle Manufacturing)、供應商管理存貨、連續補貨規劃(continuous-replenishment planning, CRP)與有效率的消費者回應(Efficient Customer Response, ECR)。然而這些嘗試並無法獲得太多的期待，因為這些嘗試都缺乏所有供應鏈成員活動的能力。個案公司於2008年，導入Oracle ERP後，開始與整個供應鏈體系的成員進行B2B的資料交換，達到即時、精確的掌握每張訂單的動向。然而在預測方面，卻因供應鏈成員所能提供的資訊薄弱，而始終無法做到良好的事先預估與因應，多數相關運籌單位，藉由現有的資訊與人員的不斷溝通來預估與調整每一季的生產與購買量，而這樣的溝通，無疑只為了減少庫存，以及避免缺料。換言之，就是避免長鞭效應的發生。然而解決買賣雙方供需差異的治本之道，其實是來自於協同規劃、預測、補貨的精神，而如何將所有供應與需求的不確定性降至最低，帶來降低庫存、增加銷售量、提高協同作業效率、改善現金流與投資報酬率的顯著效益。本研究以個案公司整個供應鏈成員相互間進行的資訊交換以及如何有效整合為主要研究方向，並探討如何在CPFR流程上如何更加以優化，大幅降低供應鏈整體的不確定性，包括賣方供應的不確定性與買方需求變動的不確定性，並透由分享需求預測資訊，並將需求變動資訊即時反應到供貨處理上，使供需差異所導致的庫存緩衝量降到最低，解決所謂供應鏈中「長鞭」效應問題，創造供應商與銷售商雙贏的局面。In the past there are many industries that have tried to put into much effort into integrating their supply chain processes in order to create more efficient supply chain operations. These operations have been given different names; e.g., Quick Response, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI), Short-Cycle Manufacturing, Vendor Managed Inventory, Continuous-replenishment planning (CRP), and Efficient Consumer Response (ECR). However, these operations often fail to realize their expectations because they lack the ability to truly connect supply chain members.In this case study, the case company implemented the Oracle ERP in 2008 when they started to conduct B2B data exchange with its supply chain members. After then, they could control every single order accurately and receive supplier response promptly. However, insufficient information provided by suppliers made accurate forecasts impossible. For each quarter, it had to reply on quarterly information exchange and communication among the relevant operators to estimate and adjust the amount of production and procurement, for reducing inventory and avoiding materials shortage. In other words, it tried to avoid the occurrence of bullwhip effect. However, resolving the difference between supply and demand requires collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment, and minimizes the uncertainties from both the supply and demand sides. In so doing, more significant benefits can be realized, such as lower inventory, increased sales, improved collaboration, and greater cash flow and returns on investment.This research focuses on the entire supply chain members of the case company, and analyzes how to share the information within the supply chain and how to integrate all data effectively. The study discusses the needed upgrade in the company’s CPFR process and how the uncertainties in supply chain can be reduced. The study shows that through sharing demand forecast information and being able to react to any demand change, the case company can keep much lower inventories, reduce the bullwhip effect, and thereby create a win-win situation for the company and its suppliers. |
