破壞性物件之加速衰退試驗的貝氏可靠度分析; A Bayesian reliability analysis of accelerated degradation test for destructive devices

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题名:	破壞性物件之加速衰退試驗的貝氏可靠度分析;A Bayesian reliability analysis of accelerated degradation test for destructive devices
作者:	楊國誠;Yang,Guo-Cheng
贡献者:	統計研究所
关键词:	加速破壞性衰退試驗;馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅方法;預測分配;accelerated destructive degradation test;Markov chain Monte Carlo;predictive distribution
日期:	2013-07-17
上传时间:	2013-08-22 12:06:35 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	本文考慮在加速破壞性衰退試驗下，假設產品衰退特徵服從對數常態分配，並與應力和時間的乘積具對數線性關係，藉以進行統計之可靠度推論。所謂衰退特徵值乃產品判定失效的主要指標及數據，而破壞性試驗是指衰退特徵之測量數據為一次性測量，即破壞性測量。在推估上，我們利用貝氏理論與馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅方法來獲得參數之貝氏估計，進而探討在正常應力條件下產品之平均失效時間與其對應之百分位點、失效時間點及可靠度函數之貝氏統計推論，我們也利用預測分配進行產品失效時間之預測。模擬結果顯示，在資訊準確的先驗分配時，即使樣本數不是很大，產品失效時間之貝氏可靠度推論十分準確。 In this thesis, we consider the accelerated destructive degradation test (ADDT) in which the degradation characteristic is the major indicator of the product failure. We discuss the products whose degradation characteristic is of lognormal distribution with mean being log-linear in the product of the stress level and square root of the observation time. In ADDT, after we measure the degradation characteristics, the products damage. It is called the destructive measure. We use the Bayesian approach with the aid of Markov chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the parameters. Furthermore, we are interested in reliability inferences at the normal stress level, including the mean time to failure, failure time distribution quantiles, failure time piont, and reliability function. We also use the predictive distribution to predict the failure time. From simulation results, when the prior distribution is very informative, the Bayesian approach on ADDT provides accurate reliability inference.
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