| 摘要: | 研究期間：10108~10207;The concepts of warning and risk assessment for water-land disaster are applied in the current disaster prevention and response mechanism. However, the interactions among the human society, water environment, land environment, and climate (weather) of river basin under long-term change trend are not systematically considered. There are some defects of warning and risk assessment for water-land disaster need to be improved: (1) lacking of systematic considerations for warning and risk assessment for water-land disaster; (2) lacking of adequate methods for risk assessment for water-land disaster; and (3) lacking of the mechanism of long-term future warning for water-land disaster. The purpose of this study is to develop an effective mechanism and system for warning and risk assessment for water-land disaster. A three-year project is proposed as follows. The first-year project, which has been executed from 2011, starts to review the current system of risk assessment for water-land disaster. The river basin will be seen as a system in this study. The framework of risk assessment for water-land disaster of river basin will be identified. Based on the concepts of warning and risk assessment proposed by the Inter-Agency Secretariat of International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR), the methods and technologies of risk assessment, systems analysis, and geographic information system (GIS) will be applied to identify the influence relationships among the factors of water-land disaster. The methodology of warning and risk assessment for water-land disaster of river basin then can be developed. Based on the characteristics of river basins in Taiwan, this study will develop an equation for calculating the risk value of water-land disaster. The evaluation indicators are conceptually divided into four dimensions of mitigation, hazard, exposure, and resistance. Each dimension includes several factors of weather, land, river, and human society to be used as indicators. This study uses GIS to analyze related spatial, attribute, and remote sensing data to obtain the risk value of water-land disaster. Furthermore, the variation trends of monitoring factors are analyzed by GIS based on related spatial, attribute, and remote sensing data. The long-term warning for the river basin which is possible to reach the high risk value can be obtained based on the analytical results. The system for warning and risk assessment for water-land disaster of river basin will be developed in this project in 2012. The software of Visual Basic, Microsoft Access, and GIS will be applied to develop the system, which consists of three subsystems of risk assessment, disaster warning, and integrated information management. The methodology and system will be verified in the third year. The Chishan River Basin will be the case study area. The methodology and system for warning and risk assessment for water-land disaster of river basin developed in this study can be used to assist the authorities and people to understand the long-term risk of water-land disasters, which can be used as the basis for generating long-term response strategy. |
