研究期間：10208~10307;In the past decade, ASEAN countries have experienced persistent and spectacular economic growth. Specifically, the continuous inflow of FDI and consequently increased exports, Vietnam and Indonesia are thought to be the next “World’s Factory”following China. Whether the economic growth of ASEAN and China are attributed to productivity growth? It matters to their sustainable growth. There is an emerging literature using firm-level data to examine the productivity dynamics of China’s manufacturing and casts doubts regarding the source of growth. That is, China’s productivity growth is attributed to factor reallocation, structure change, or technical progress? However, there is no study using firm-level data to examine this crucial issue for Vietnam and Indonesia. This three-year project aims to adopt the framework of aggregate productivity growth (APG) developed by Petrin and Levinsohn (2012) to examine the productivity dynamics in the manufacturing sector of Vietnam, Indonesia, and China during the 2001-2008 period. This approach enables us to decompose productivity growth to resource reallocation (labor, capital, and intermediate goods) and technical progress. The differences in productivity sources across various ownerships of firms are also explored. Moreover, as China’s productivity growth attracts widely concern, this project utilizes manufacturing firm data over 1991-2008 and employ Bailey-Hulten-Campbell and Syrquin approaches to decompose industry-level and manufacturing-level productivity. It aims to assess the contribution of structural change on productivity growth, examining whether China has experienced a successful industrial transformation during the past two decades. Finally, I adopt the Metafrontier approach to examine the degree of catching-up between Vietnam (Indonesia) and China in both textile and electronics industries. Through the comparison on technological gap, we can evaluate how far the technological level of Vietnam and Indonesia behind China in labor and technology-intensive industries and whether they can become the next “World’s Factory”in the near future.
