中文摘要 風力發電目前已在大部分發展中國家成為吸引人的再生能源模式。以目前的 電力供應量來看，史瓦濟蘭正面對電力供給不足的挑戰。再生風力資源的電 力供應能夠成為史瓦濟蘭的的永續發展的一環。為了能夠在最低成本下獲得 足夠的電力，在風力發電計畫開始前尋找適當的場址以及評估是必要的。本 研究是在史瓦濟蘭境內的魯旁保高原的特定場址設置風力發電的可行性分析 。透過 30 個月的風速資料中，包含在高度 10、20、30、40、50 公尺以及垂 直方向外差得到 80 公尺高度下每小時風速資料加以分析風的特性、技術以及 經濟潛能。偉伯統計分布函數和每月的偉伯參數 k 和 c 用以決定風速的分布 ，其中 41 < k < 3.16 與 5.56 < c < 7.90 m/s 的數值顯示大範圍之風速分 布在所有季節中，且在九月中有最高的 c 值，二月中為最低。在五十公尺下 的風功率密度範圍為 113.59 – 304.49 W/m2 。 在與其他模型的比較分析後，以 RETScreen 軟體模擬的 23 MW 安裝容量的風 力農場和西門子風力渦輪機組模型作為技術以及經濟評估。2.3 MW 額定容量 機組的評估得到 27.9%的容量因子和 56,278 MWh 發電輸出。此建議的風力發 電廠預期能夠每年減少6,455噸的溫室氣體，二十年的壽命則總和達118,776 噸。在沒有建廠補助下，估計一座風力農場使用 2.3 MW 風力渦輪額定容量能 夠發電的最低成本為 0.13 US$/kWh。萊邦博高原具有使用高容量風力渦輪機 來開發併網風力發電的潛力，。以最少收購電價的補貼風力計畫政策對成功 推行的風力發電計畫會非常重要。 ;Abstract Wind energy utilization has increasingly become attractive form of renewable energy in most developing countries. Swaziland is challenged by high electricity demand which cannot be met by current generation capacity. Renewable wind resources could be employed in electricity generation as part of sustainable development in the country. The identification of a suitable site as well as the assessment of that site prior to wind generation project is very essential in order to produce substantial amounts of power at minimum costs. This study is a site specific analysis to determine the feasibility of wind electricity generation in Lubombo plateau in Swaziland. The wind characteristics, technical and economic potential were analyzed using 30 months hourly wind speed data measured at 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 m heights and vertical extrapolations were carried out to 80 m height. The wind distribution was determined using Weibull probability distribution function and the monthly Weibull parameters k and c are within the range 2.41 < k < 3.16 and 5.56 < c < 7.90 m/s indicating wide spread of wind speeds in all seasons, with highest c values in September and lowest in February. The wind power density ranges between 113.59 – 304.49 W/m2 at 50 m. The technical and economic assessments were performed using the RETScreen software for a 23 MW installed capacity hypothetical wind farm and the Siemens wind turbine models were selected after comparison with other models for analysis. The 2.3 MW rated capacity was evaluated with corresponding annual energy output was 56,278 MWh with 27.9% capacity factor (CF). The project is expected able to mitigate 6,455 tonnes of GHGs annually and a total of 118,776 tonnes over 20 years lifetime for the proposed wind power plant. The least cost of generating electricity is estimated at 0.13 US$/kWh considering a wind farm with 2.3 MW wind turbine capacities without capital subsidies. It was concluded that this area had a potential for the development of grid-connected wind electricity generation using high capacity wind turbines and the 2.3 MW wind turbines seemed to be more feasible for installation in Lubombo plateau with local site conditions. Subsidization of the wind project at minimum feed-in tariffs would play a very important role in its successful implementation
