隨著時代的演進，能源安全的概念已從一開始的「單一」面向，演變至朝向「多元」的發展。雖然能源安全所涵蓋的範疇多而複雜，包括供應安全、消費安全、生產安全、產業安全、生態安全、環境安全…等，而影響能源安全的因素也相應的極為複雜，包括資源稟賦、經濟狀況、政治態勢、軍事互動…等，但能源供應量的變化及價格的波動一直是兩個改變能源安全狀況的主要起源。基本上，所有會影響到數量變化及價格波動的因素都會直接或間接影響到能源安全的狀況，過去能源安全的核心概念一直較著重在供應安全，然而從需求面的角度來看，整個經濟體系對於能源的依賴程度如可以透過相關政策、科技發展、技術進步、產業結構變遷等有所改變時，當遭受到外在之能源衝擊，經濟體系所受到衝擊的影響大小也就會有所不同。 基於以上，本研究的主要目的係以經濟體系所能承載能源衝擊之能量為核心，從建立一個能源安全評估系統的概念出發，將供應面之風險評估結合到需求面的經濟考量，同時更從事後及事前之角度來評估台灣之能源安全度。從事後的角度來觀察，主要可分析過去台灣能源安全之演變狀況，若從事前的角度來評估，則可以針對台灣未來可能的能源安全軌跡做預警，而當加入一些相關能源政策、新能源科技、產業結構變遷及氣候變遷等之可能變化考量，整個系統對台灣能源安全之可能變化將會有更進一步的掌握。結果顯示，我國過去及未來的能源安全狀況與對能源的依賴程度有很大的關連，當經濟體系的能源效率提升、產業結構偏向低能源密集產業發展、新及替代性能源的引進及發展等，都會顯著提升我國的能源安全度，承受外在能源衝擊的能力也會明顯增加。 ;The concept of energy security has developed toward a more complex and multi-dimensional way in recent years. Basically, the fluctuation of supply quantity and price of energy are the main origins that directly affect energy security. Traditionally, supply side security measurement is the main focus for energy security analysis. Yet, the demand side management such as the technological progress, government policy and industrial structure should also be the important consideration in a nation’s energy security assessment. Consequently, it is necessary to take both the supply and demand factors into account and assess the energy security in a more comprehensive framework. This paper aims to present an ex-post and ex-ante energy security analysis for Taiwan which combines an innovative supply risk assessment and a comprehensive demand side structure as represented by a general equilibrium model for energy, economic, and technology analysis together. The ex-post analysis shows the historical path of energy security. The ex-ante analysis results can offer a bigger picture showing the potential energy security problems of Taiwan in the future and serve as an important reference for the government agency in charge of relevant energy policy, development of renewable energy, and climate change issue. Our results indicate that Taiwan’s past and future energy security situation has a close relationship with its degree of dependency on energy. Consequently, improving energy efficiency, shifting industrial production toward low energy-intensive products, and adopting new and alternative energy technologies will significantly improve its energy security and the ability of combating exogenous energy shocks.
