台灣國產車銷售量與總體經濟因素分析

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题名:	台灣國產車銷售量與總體經濟因素分析
作者:	林全錦;Lin, Chuan-Ching
贡献者:	產業經濟研究所在職專班
关键词:	國產汽車銷售量;總體經濟;Taiwan’s domestic car sales;macroeconomic
日期:	2017-07-17
上传时间:	2017-10-27 13:58:54 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	本研究從總體經濟探討影響台灣國產汽車銷售量之因素，在原設定9個總體經濟變數中，經過和汽車銷售量個別進行相關性的分析後，挑出4個關聯程度較顯著之變數，分別為台灣工業生產指數、消費者物價指數、景氣領先指標綜合指數、國內生產毛額GDP再加上虛擬變數(貨物稅減免）共5個解釋變數，分別採最小平方法及固定效果模型進行估計分析。　　分析結果顯示，最小平方法較不適合用於本研究，另採用固定效果模型進行估計時，估計結果相較於最小平方法有著更高的可信度，除了虛擬變數（貨物稅減免）在10%的顯著水準下仍不顯著外，其他4個解釋變數（工業生產指數、消費者物價指數、景氣領先指標綜合指數、國內生產毛額GDP）皆落在1-5%的顯著水準下，說明貨物稅的減免對國產汽車的銷售量未有顯著影響，建議決策單位在政策的實行上應經過審慎評估。其他變數方面，工業生產指數對台灣國產汽車銷售量有正向的影響，消費者物價指數對台灣國產汽車銷售量有負向的影響和預期相反，景氣領先指標綜合指數對台灣國汽車銷售量有負向的影響和預期相反，國內生產毛額GDP對台灣國產汽車銷售量有正向的影響。 ;This study explores factors that affect Taiwan’s domestic car sales from a macroeconomic point of view. After conducting correlation analysis between domestic car sales and each of the nine presumed macroeconomic variables, the study selected four variables that showed greater significant correlation – Taiwan’s industrial production, consumer price index (CPI), composite index of leading indicators, and gross domestic product (GDP). Following that, with the addition of a dummy variable – commodity tax reduction – the study employs these five explanatory variables for analysis using the method of least squares and fixed effects models. Analysis results suggest that the method of least squares is not the suitable choice for this research. On the other hand, application of fixed effects models yielded more reliable estimation results compared to when applying the method of least squares. Aside from the dummy variable (commodity tax reduction), which had a significance level of 10%, the other four explanatory variables (industrial production, consumer price index, composite index of leading indicators, and gross domestic product) all had significance levels that fell between 1-5%. This suggests that commodity tax reduction bears no significant effect on the sales of domestic cars, prompting the study to urge decision-making authorities to carefully evaluate before carrying out policies. As for the other variables, industrial production has positive impact on Taiwan’s domestic car sales; the consumer price index has negative effect on Taiwan’s domestic car sales, contrary to the study’s anticipation; the composite index of leading indicators has negative effect on Taiwan’s domestic car sales, also contrary to anticipation; last nut not least, the gross domestic product has positive effect on Taiwan’s domestic car sales.
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