東協國家出口至七大工業國之實證分析－自由貿易協定的效果

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题名:	東協國家出口至七大工業國之實證分析－自由貿易協定的效果
作者:	黃致霖;Huang, Chih-Lin
贡献者:	產業經濟研究所在職專班
关键词:	引力模型;東協國家;七大工業國家;Gravity equation;ASEAN;G7
日期:	2018-07-04
上传时间:	2018-08-31 14:34:17 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	長久以來七大工業國家 (簡稱G7)因物資需求與亞洲國家往來相當頻繁，隨著政經局勢的改變，G7國家與亞洲各國逐漸由殖民經濟轉變為市場供需為主的雙邊貿易模式。自2010年以來，世界貿易組織(簡稱WTO)歷經杜哈談判失敗後幾乎呈現停擺的狀態，使得WTO精神中最主要的「貿易多邊主義」受到衝擊，造成國與國之間「雙邊貿易協定」及鄰近區域之「區域貿易協定」發展更加快速。本文將以引力模型探討 2004至2016 年間，東協(ASEAN)成員對G7國家的出口貿易關係是否因國與國之間FTA(Free Trade Agreement)生效、匯率、關稅而產生實質影響。本研究根據McCallum(1995)引力模型為基礎，實證結果顯示：東協會員國因有FTA的簽定，將對G7國家出口貿易產生助益，會員國之間並無明顯的因簽定FTA產生貿易相互排擠現象。G7國家關稅政策以及匯率政策對於東協會員國的出口貿易有顯著負向影響。東協會員國前期出口總額與當期出口呈現正向關係，顯示出口有持續性；G7國家實質匯率與東協各國出口呈現負向顯著相關，代表G7會員國的匯率波動將造成東協國家的出口貿易產生較大影響。 ;Over the past few decades, the group of seven (G7) contributed large amounts of trades with Asian countries for raw materials demands. With the changing of the political and economic environment, the G7 and Asian countries have transformed from colonial economy to become bilateral trade model following market supply and demands Since 2010, the Doha round of trade talked failed; World Trade Organization (WTO) suffered serious challenge and” Trade Multilateralism” became hard to achieve. “Bilateral trade” and "Regional Trade Agreement"(RTA) have been highlights for entire world. We used the gravity equation to analyze exports flows and using dataset from ASEANstats(2004-2016). This subject we have tried to find out factors that have influenced on trade. We put variables in the gravity equation such like, exchange rate, tariff and Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and see the result. Base on McCallum′s (1995) gravity equation and empirical analysis export data shows that ASEAN members took benefit from FTA once they signed and effect, especially export performance. We have looked for evidence about country signed FTA then caused other countries export trade reduction, there is no apparent evidence to show negative effect such like FTA created exclusion of trade in the ASEAN group. The results show the G7s’ tariff and currency strategy have a significant impact on the ASEAN members’ trade performance. ASEAN members’ exports performance has a positive effect with the pervious export performance, it means that ASEAN industry upgrading is ongoing; the G7s’ real exchange rate is a negative correlation with the ASEAN members’ export performance, it means the G7’s exchange rate fluctuations will become an impact on the ASEAN member.
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