土壤液化公告對區域房價影響之研究 -以板橋及新莊為例

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题名:	土壤液化公告對區域房價影響之研究 -以板橋及新莊為例
作者:	甘淑君;KAN, SHU-CHUN
贡献者:	產業經濟研究所在職專班
关键词:	土壤液化;特徵價格法;板橋區;新莊區;soil liquefaction;hedonic price approach;Banqiao District;Xinzhuang District
日期:	2018-07-10
上传时间:	2018-08-31 14:34:33 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	2016年2月6日發生芮氏規模6.6「高雄美濃地震」，震央位於高雄市美濃區，在這次地震中造成台南市許多房屋面臨嚴重倒塌災情慘重，追究原因可能是土壤液化、建築施工品質等問題所造成，同時經濟部中央地質調查所在2016年3月14日公開土壤液化潛勢查詢系統，除了提供民眾查詢了解居住環境，同時建立相關配套措施使民眾正確面對土壤液化問題。本研究探討土壤液化公告後是否會對板橋區、新莊區房價造成影響及土壤液化的程度對房價是否也會產生相同程度的影響力。利用特徵價格理論為基礎並以半對數之普通最小平方法（OLS）建立房價模型，研究房屋屬性如屋齡、坪數、樓層、車位等及區域屬性如離捷運站距離、離新北市政府距離來做土壤液化對區域房價實證分析。實證結果顯示板橋區和新莊區房屋屬性與區域屬性均有良好的解釋能力，各自變數在統計上均有明顯的顯著性且係數符號和預期皆相符，而在土壤液化公告後對板橋區及新莊區的房價均有下滑的幅度，代表房價會受到土壤液化公告後而下滑，但房價不會因土壤液化的程度而有相同的影響程度。 ;On February 6, 2016, the “Kaohsiung Meinong earthquake” occurred, with a magnitude of 6.6. The epicentre was located in the Mino district of Kaohsiung City. Tainan′s house collapsed seriously. Many experts, scholars and research institutes pointed out that the reasons may be soil liquefaction, construction quality, etc. The government publicized that is the soil liquefaction potential regional map under public opinion, and the Central Geological Survey of the Ministry of Economic Affairs released the soil liquefaction potential inquiring system on March 14, 2016. 　　　　This study uses the data after the announcement of soil liquefaction on March 14, 2016 to discuss the impact on Banqiao District and Xinzhuang District Housing Prices. After the announcement of the soil liquefaction potential regional, whether the house price will be affected by the policy and adjusted. And whether the degree of soil liquefaction has the same degree of influence on house prices. Based on the characteristic price theory and using the semi-logarithmic ordinary least square method (OLS) to establish a house price model, study property characteristics such as housing age, floor number, floors, parking spaces, etc., and regional characteristics such as distance from the MRT station and the distance from the New Taipei City government to do an empirical analysis of soil liquefaction for house prices. The results of the study show that Banqiao District and Xinzhuang District have good explanatory power in both the property and regional attributes, The respective variables are statistically significant and the coefficient signs and expectations are consistent. After the announcement of the liquefaction of soil, the prices of all the houses in Banqiao District and Xinzhuang District have declined, indicating that prices will decline due to the announcement of soil liquefaction. However, the degree of soil liquefaction does not cause the same degree of impact on house prices.
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