| 摘要: | 本研究資料來源為台灣中央氣象局地震資料庫，擷取西元1990年至2003年之地震目錄，首先利用 MATLAB 程式繪製四年內之地震分布圖，由較大規模之地震，例如芮氏規模6開始持續一點點的下降，從地震分布圖中找出距離近似均勻之5個地震事件，且誤差 ≦1.2% ，並記錄這些點組成的弧線以及其交叉，如無法找到，則將芮氏規模 M 慢慢下修直至找出地震圓弧線及其交叉，而此交叉我們稱之為「最強地震圓弧交叉」。
最強地震圓弧交叉形成後3年內，在交叉點向外延伸半徑90公里內及半徑70公里內，發生 M≧5.7 之強震機率:在半徑 90公里和300天內約有 75.0%，200天內約有 62.5%，100天內約有 62.5%；在半徑70公里和300天內約有 58.3%，200天內約有 50.0%，100天內約有 37.5%。發生規模 M≧6.0 之大地震機率:在半徑90公里和300天內約有 50.0%，200天內約有 33.3%，100天內約有 16.7%；半徑在70公里和300天內約有 33.3%，200天內約有 29.2%，100天內約有 12.5%。
最強地震圓弧雙交叉形成後3年內，在交叉點向外延伸半徑90公里內及半徑70公里內，發生M≧5.7 之強震機率:在半徑 90公里和300天內約有 76.9%，200天內約有 69.2%，100天內約有 46.2%；在70公里和300天內約有 69.2%，200天內約有 61.5%，100天內約有 38.5%；發生規模 M≧6.0 之大地震機率；在90公里和300天內約有 53.8%，200天內約有 53.8%，100天內約有 23.1%；在70公里和300天內約有 46.2%，200天內約有 46.2%，100天內約有 15.4%。
最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉形成後3年內，在交叉點向外延伸半徑90公里內及半徑70公里內，發生M≧5.7 之強震機率:在半徑 90公里和300天內約有 87.5%，200天內約有 87.5%，100天內約有 62.5%；在70公里和300天內約有 75.0%，200天內約有 75.0%，100天內約有 50.0%；發生規模 M≧6.0 之大地震機率:在90公里和300天內約有 62.5%，200天內約有 62.5%，100天內約有 25.0%；在70公里和300天內約有 50.0%，200天內約有 50.0%，100天內約有 12.5%。
;The data of this research’s is obtained from the seismic database of the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan. The time range of analysis is from 1990 to 2003. We first use the MATLAB program to find the earthquakes with magnitudes of M≧6.0 in three years, and plot the seismic distribution .Next we try to find 5 earthquake events with uniform distances, and the error of the uniformity is required to be smaller than 1.2%. If no arc can be found, then we reduce the value of M to continue the search until an intersection of two circular arcs of earthquake can be found. This intersection is called " the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes ".
In 3 years after “the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes” have occurred, we look for the strong earthquakes happened within the radius of 90 km and the radius of 70 km from the intersection. For the strong earthquakes of M≧5.7 , the occurrence probability in the circular regions with radii of 90 km is 75.0% in 300 days, 62.5% in 200 days, and 62.5% in 100 days. Inside the circular regions with radii of 70 kilometers, the occurrence probability is 58.3% in 300 days, 50.0% in 200 days, and 37.5% in 100 days. For the strong earthquakes of M≧6.0 , the occurrence probability in the circular regions with radii of 90 km is 50.0% in 300 days, 33.3% in 200 days, and 16.7% in 100 days. Inside the circular regions with radii of 70 kilometers, the occurrence probability is 33.3% in 300 days, 29.2% in 200 days, and 12.5% in 100 days.
In 3 years after “the strongest double-convex intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes” have occurred, we look for the strong earthquakes happened within the radius of 90 km and the radius of 70 km from the intersection. For the strong earthquakes of M≧5.7 , the occurrence probability in the circular regions with radii of 90 km is 76.9% in 300 days, 69.2% in 200 days, and 46.2% in 100 days. Inside the circular regions with radii of 70 kilometers the occurrence probability is 69.2% in 300 days, 61.5% in 200 days, and 38.5% in 100 days. For the strong earthquake of M≧6.0 , the occurrence probability in the circular regions with radii of 90 km is 53.8% in 300 days, 53.8% in 200 days, and 23.1% in 100 days. Inside the circular regions with radii of 70 kilometers the occurrence probability is 46.2% in 300 days, 46.2% in 200 days, and 15.4% in 100 days.
In 3 years after “the strongest double-convex intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes” have occurred, we look for the strong earthquakes happened within the radius of 90 km and the radius of 70 km from the intersection. For the strong earthquakes of M≧5.7 , the occurrence probability in the circular regions with radii of 90 km is 87.5% in 300 days, 87.5% in 200 days, and 62.5% in 100 days. Inside the circular regions with radii of 70 kilometers the occurrence probability is 75.0% in 300 days, 75.0% in 200 days, and 50.0% in 100 days. For the strong earthquakes of M≧6.0 , the occurrence probability in the circular regions with radii of 90 km is 62.5% un 300 days, 62.5% in 200 days, and 25.0% in 100 days. Inside the circular regions with radii of 70 kilometers the occurrence probability is 50.0% in 300 days, 50.0% in 200 days, and 12.5% in 100 days. |
