台灣位處於菲律賓海板塊、歐亞大陸板塊與太平洋板塊之交界面上，屬環太平洋地震帶，地殼活動頻繁經常引起地震，並帶來許多自然災害。為了因應防災系統及減災之工作，本研究將分別對台灣地區重要之活動斷層進行模擬分析，推估地震發生時可能引致之房屋倒塌率及傷亡率，並估算保險費率。 依據1999年台灣集集地震之數據資料，前人研究分析得出台灣355個鄉鎮區域的房屋倒塌率及傷亡率，並提出了最大地動速度及最大地動加速度對房屋倒塌率與傷亡率之經驗關係式。而本研究將利用台灣活動斷層數據資料，代入地動參數相關衰減式推算最大地動速度，再以最大地動速度與房屋倒塌率及傷亡率之迴歸經驗公式，估計各斷層錯動時台灣各鄉鎮區可能引致的房屋倒塌率及傷亡率，進而推估地震保險費率，並利用房屋倒塌率及傷亡率進行地震災害風險評估，輔助相關災害防治與管理。而分析過程採用蒙地卡羅模擬（Monte Carlo Simulation），考慮數據之不確定性及提升預測地震發生機率之準確性。 結果顯示，台灣中部及東部房屋倒塌率與傷亡率皆高於北部及南部許多，由於此兩區域的斷層其回歸期短，地震矩規模大，另西部地區多為平地地形，為人口集中處，因此產生相對於北部及南部較高之危害。而每年因地震所引致之房屋倒塌率約介於0.001%至0.29%，若以地震險中最高理賠金額150萬計算地震險之損失金額，各縣市損失金額進行平均得出結果為1348元，相當接近於現行之地震基本險年保費1350元。 ;Taiwan is located in the boundary of the Eurasian Plate and Philippine Sea Plate that induced dramatic crustal deformation, very active faults and high seismicity rate over the past few years. In order to provide important indicators to earthquake prevention work and to reduce future earthquake damage, this study will conduct a series of simulation and analysis on household collapse rate, then calculating of the annual residential earthquake insurance accordingly. In this study, we present a Monte Carlo Simulation to calculate the earthquake-induced household collapse rate in Taiwan, based on the geological data and engineering seismological data in the literature. The analyses include scenario-based estimation and the probabilistic estimations considering input-data uncertainties and the randomness of earthquake occurrence. The result shows that the annual household collapse rate caused by earthquakes could ranges from 0.001% to 0.29% among the 371 townships in Taiwan, and the areas in Central and Eastern Taiwan should be under a higher risk. According to the household collapse rate, the annual insurance premium for an NT$1.5 million coverage should range from NT$100 to NT$3,400 with an average equal to NT$1,348 that is very close to the standard rate of NT$1,350 of the current earthquake insurance implemented in Taiwan.
