本研究利用最強地震圓弧交叉的概念，尋找出應力集中的區域，並試著預測後續發 生強烈大地震的時間和地點，資料來源為日本氣象廳所提供的，再選取 2005 到 2014 的 地震資料，製作成地震目錄。 開始時透過 MATLAB 觀察最小規模 6 以上之地震事件分布，並把觀察的地震事件的 最小規模逐步向下修正，直到找出兩條首先出現且形成交叉的地震弧，其中地震弧是由 五個或以上的地震事件，近似均勻排列所組合而成的，用此方法找出的地震弧交叉，我 們稱之為最強地震弧交叉，再以最強地震圓弧交叉點為中心半徑 70Km 和最小弧長的四 分之一兩個圓形範圍，去尋找後續發生的強烈地震事件來進行統計和分析。 利用地震圓弧來推測應力集中的區域，這樣的概念是來自於岩石中張力裂縫的分布 圖形，和壓力板塊下均勻排列的孔洞，對照統計的結果可以發現，最強地震圓弧交叉和 後續強烈地震之間有很強的關聯性。;This study uses the concept of strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes to find the area where the stress is concentrated, and attempts to predict the time of occurrence and the place of the sequential strong earthquake. The data source is provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the seismic data from 2005 to 2014 which is selected to make into an earthquake catalog. At the beginning, the distribution of seismic events with a minimum magnitude of 6 or above is analyzed through MATLAB, and the minimum magnitude of the observed earthquake events is decreased gradually until the two first occurrence and intersecting circular arcs of earthquakes are found. Here the arc of earthquakes is composed of five or more than five earthquake events which are distributed approximately uniformly. The intersections found by this method are called the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes. The circular predicted region is defined by taking the intersection point as its center and the radius can be 70Km or a quarter of the length of the shorter one between the two arcs of the intersection. Inside the predicted region, we look for the strong earthquakes occurred after the formation of the intersection. And the strong events are analyzed by statistics. The intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes is used to estimate the region of stress concentration. The concept is derived from the uniform distribution pattern of tension cracks in the rock and the uniformly arranged holes under in a pressure plate. According to the statistical results. The relation between the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes and the subsequent strong earthquakes is quite strong.
