職棒選秀與球員表現關係之分析-以中華職棒本土打者為例

NCUIR > School of Management at National Central University > Executive Master of Industrial Economics > Electronic Thesis & Dissertation > Item 987654321/81831

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/81831

Title:	職棒選秀與球員表現關係之分析-以中華職棒本土打者為例
Authors:	吳芷喬 Wu, Chih-Chiao
Keywords:	選秀制度;打擊表現;隨機效果;Draft;Batting Performance;Random Effect
Date:	2019-07-11
Issue Date:	2019-09-03 17:06:01 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	回顧中華職棒歷年選秀會總是有不同的話題，選秀相關之研究大多是制度層面的申論，關於選秀輪次與球員進入職棒後的表現關係，在國內鮮少有研究。本研究旨在蒐集中華職棒大聯盟2009年至2018年的打擊表現數據，以本土打者為例，藉由隨機效果模型(Random Effect Model, RE)，來探討中職選秀與打擊表現之關係，並比較四隊前段輪次選秀球員打擊表現之差異。研究結果發現，選秀輪次與打擊表現具有顯著的負相關，意味著前面輪次的選秀球員較後面輪次的表現優異；另外，在比較四隊打擊表現後，結果顯示全年平均勝率排名第一的Lamigo桃猿隊，其前三輪次的選秀球員，除了打擊率較統一7-ELEVEn獅隊高，其餘打擊成績皆較其他三隊低，反觀最後一名的中信兄弟隊除了打擊率稍微低於第三名的富邦悍將，其餘攻擊指數、全壘打、打點等打擊成績皆優於其他三隊，這與選秀制度規則中，由戰績落後球隊有優先指定權不相違背。 ;Looking back at the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) draft annually, it always draws the public’s attention that most of the researches related the draft study on the institutional level. There is few research focusing on the relationship between the draft and the performance of players entering the professional baseball league. This study used the Random Effects Model(RE) and collected the performance data of the CPBL from 2009 to 2018. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between the draft and the performance of local hitters, also to compare the batting statistics of all the players in the previous three rounds of the draft picks for four teams. The results showed that there is a significant negative correlation between the draft and the performance of the draft players, which means the draft players who got picked in the previous rounds have better performance than the latter rounds. Moreover, comparing the performance of four teams, the first three rounds of the draft players in Lamigo Monkeys, which had the highest average winning percentage, have higher scores in batting average than the Uni-President Lions, and the rest of batting scores are lower than the other three teams. In contrast, the ChinaTrust Brothers in the last place only had slightly lower scores in batting average than Fubon Guardians in the third place. However, the ChinaTrust Brothers has better scores in OPS, home runs and RBI than the other three teams. The result matches the CPBL draft rules which mean the team who with worst record in the previous season will receives the highest pick.
Appears in Collections:	[Executive Master of Industrial Economics] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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