地震圓弧之精度對台灣地區最強地震圓弧雙交叉之影響;The Influence of the Accuracy of Circular Arc of Earthquakes on the Strongest Double Intersection of Circular Arcs of Earthquakes around Taiwan

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题名:	地震圓弧之精度對台灣地區最強地震圓弧雙交叉之影響;The Influence of the Accuracy of Circular Arc of Earthquakes on the Strongest Double Intersection of Circular Arcs of Earthquakes around Taiwan
作者:	李瑋育;Lee, Wei-Yu
贡献者:	土木工程學系
关键词:	最強地震圓弧雙交叉;the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes
日期:	2020-06-30
上传时间:	2020-09-02 14:19:36 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	李顯智博士於近期的研究文獻中提出了「最強地震圓弧交叉」的概念，而其有兩個交叉點的型態稱為「最強地震圓弧雙交叉」，此種地震圓弧交叉型態在預測強震上有較好的成效，由於先前的相關研究都是以一個固定的地震圓弧精度條件為前提，因此本研究主要聚焦在不同地震圓弧之精度條件對台灣地區最強地震圓弧雙交叉之影響。構成地震圓弧之地震事件分佈的位置之容許範圍由 TOLRe 和 TOLde 兩參數控制，本研究透過MATLAB 程式修改此兩參數，進而改變地震圓弧之精度，分析 1977 年至 2016 年間台灣地區在不同精度下搜尋到的最強地震圓弧雙交叉案例。本研究發現精度太差時較難搜尋到確認成功的最強地震圓弧雙交叉，在精度條件(TOLRe=0.015, TOL de=0.13)和(TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.14)下得到特別高的強震預測成效，且在(TOLRe=0.012, TOLde=0.1)之下搜尋到了預測到2016年高雄美濃地震的最強地震圓弧雙交叉，證明最強地震圓弧雙交叉相關研究對地震之預測具有一定的參考與實用價值。;In a recent paper, the idea of the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SICAE) was proposed by Dr. Lei, Hin-Chi. And the SICAE with two intersection points can be called the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDICAE). It had been found that SDICAE is useful in predicting strong earthquakes. The related researches before had set up a fixed condition of accuracy of circular arc of earthquakes (CAE). Therefore, I focus on the influence of different conditions of accuracy of CAE on the SDICAE around Taiwan in this study. The tolerance of error of CAE is controlled by two parameters, TOLRe and TOLde. We can modulate these two parameters to change the condition of accuracy. We analyze the SDICAEs in different conditions of accuracy around Taiwan from 1977 to 2016. We have found that, it is more difficult to find out a confirmed SDICAE in low accuracy. However, the efficiency of the predictions by the SDICAEs is especially high with (TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.13) and (TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.14). Besides, we found out a SDICAE which had predicted the occurrence of the 2016 Meinong Earthquake in the case with (TOLRe=0.012, TOLde=0.1). It proves that, the study of SDICAE may have some practical value for earthquake prediction.
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