台灣北中南區二十公里深最強地震圓弧雙交叉的強震預測;Strong earthquake predicition by SDICAE with depth within twenty kilometers at Northern, Central, and Southern Taiwan

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Title:	台灣北中南區二十公里深最強地震圓弧雙交叉的強震預測;Strong earthquake predicition by SDICAE with depth within twenty kilometers at Northern, Central, and Southern Taiwan
Authors:	范慧筠;Fan, Huei-Yun
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	最強地震圓弧雙交叉;the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes
Date:	2022-11-18
Issue Date:	2023-05-09 17:13:49 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究是根據李顯智老師所提出的「最強地震圓弧雙交叉」方法，運用MATLAB程式進行最強地震圓弧雙交叉的搜尋，並對結果進行強震預測的分析與探討。我們搜尋深度為20 公里內及芮氏規模為3.0 以上地震事件所組成的最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉和凹凸交叉，並以此進行70 天內的強震預測。本研究主軸為台灣局部區域強震預測的探討，以緯度將台灣劃分為北區（北緯24 度至25.5 度)、中區（北緯23 度至24 度)以及南區（北緯21.7 度至23 度)進行分析。在北、中、南三區，半徑比值在1.22 以下的最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉有顯著的70天內強震預測效果。另外，在北區和南區，半徑比值小於3 的最強地震圓弧凹凸交叉有不錯的100 天內強震預測效果。;The strong earthquake prediction in this research is based on “the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDICAE)” proposed by Hin-Chi Lei, which is implemented by using MATLAB. We consider the earthquake everts within 20 kilometers deep and over 3.0 on the Richter scale. We try to predict strong earthquakes with magnitude over 5.7 within 70 days. This research is focused on three local regions of Taiwan, including the northern region (from 24°N to 25.5°N), central region (from 23°N to 24°N), and southern region (from 21.7°N to 23°N). In all the three regions, the hit rates of predictions of the strong earthquakes within 70 days are remarkable if the strongest double convex intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes with radius ratios smaller than 1.22 are adopted. On the other hand, only in the northern and southern regions, the hit rates of predicions of the strong earthquakes within 100 days are good if the strongest concave convex intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes with radius ratios smaller than 3 are applied. Keywords
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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