當正確性得到驗證後，本研究以台灣803個測站點來去進行PSHA計算並獲得其地震危害度曲線圖及台灣50年內2%及10%超越機率(再現週期475年及2475年)之地震危害度地圖。結果顯示，相對於其他地區，在東部台東市區及台南平原地區會有較高的最大地動加速度(Peak Ground Acceleration, PGA)危害，在再現週期475年時PGA危害度為0.5 g以上，而再現週期2475年時PGA危害度可達到1 g以上。本研究也將台灣4個都會區進行了參數拆解，來去得知各區在再現週期475年及2475年時，主要會遇到何種震源以提供給工程師參考。 ;Taiwan is located on the Circum-Pacific seismic belt, which has a frequent occurrence rate of earthquakes. It causes people to often suffer the loss of life and property because of the earthquake event. Engineers often perform a seismic hazard analysis to assess the occurrence probability associated with seismic hazards. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is most frequently used in Taiwan. In the present day, the PSHA solution is calculated by the Total-Probability theorem and Monte Carlo simulation. However, the reliability result is not very high compared to another theorem.
This study proposes a new calculation method based on joint distribution. It uses the concept of continuous joint distribution to calculate PSHA. Still, because the definition of multiple integrals′ upper and lower limits is complicated, this study uses discrete joint distribution to verify its correctness. A total of 803 station data in Taiwan are selected to perform PSHA calculations after correctness is verified. The seismic hazard curve and the seismic hazard map of Taiwan with 2% and 10% exceedance probability within 50 years can be obtained from the simulation.
The results show that Taitung and Tainan are subject to a greater PGA seismic hazard than other areas in Taiwan. At the 10% occurrence probability level in 50 years, the PGA hazard is more than 0.5 g. The PGA hazard is more than 1 g at the 2% occurrence probability in 50 years. Furthermore, this study used deaggregation to analyze the future earthquake sources of four metropolitan areas in Taiwan during the return period of 475 years and 2475 years (10% and 2% exceedance probabilities within the next 50 years).
