傳統的Holland模型將颱風或颶風視為對稱或準對稱的渦流進行模擬，這種假設非常適用於深海區域或地形平緩的區域所觀測到的結果。然而，中央山脈的存在會導致在模擬過程中Holland模型產生極大的誤差。在本文中，我們的目標是在熱帶氣旋只知道路徑和強度的情況下，創建一個新的風暴潮計算天氣模型，並使該模型能夠呈現地形的阻塞效應。由於風速遠大於颱風的移動速度，流場很快就從過渡階段轉變為準穩態。因此，天氣場主要受風暴強度和地形控制，受風暴軌跡影響較小。本文提出了一種新的統計方法，用於根據颱風的位置和強度產生真實的天氣場。我們的目標不是使用傳統的參數模型來表示颱風的風場和壓力場的結構，而是透過使用歷史颱風的10 公尺風場和海平面壓力來開發現實參數化（REP）模型，提供更現實的颱風模型，以及在地形影響不可忽視時生成更好的風暴潮。我們採用了歐洲中期天氣預報中心（ECMWF）的ERA-5再分析數據，共有1981年至2021年的3200個數據。ERA-5再分析數據已經通過台灣交通部中央氣象署（CWA）的地面觀測驗證，包括壓力和風速計數據。 使用 COMCOT-SS 模型模擬風暴潮。結果也與 CWA 的潮汐計數據進行了比較。可以看到非常好的對比結果。驗證後，以ERA-5數據為資料庫，透過提供颱風的位置和強度來產生天氣場。;In conventional Holland-type parametric models, a typhoon or hurricane is modeled as a symmetric or quasi-symmetric vortex. These symmetric assumptions fit the observation well in deep-ocean areas or areas with flat topography. The presence of Central Mountain Range (CMR), however, will cause these models to produce significant errors. In this paper, we aim to create a new weather model for storm surge calculation while only the track and intensity are known for a tropical cyclone, and this model shall be able to present the terrain blockage effect. Because the wind velocity is much faster than the moving speed of the typhoon, the flow field soon transfers from a transition stage into a quasi-steady state. As a result, the weather field is primarily controlled by storm intensity and topography and has less effect from the storm trajectory. This paper presents a new statistical method for generating a realistic weather field based on the location and intensity of the typhoon. Instead of using conventional parametric models to represent the structure of wind and pressure fields of a typhoon, we aim to develop a Realistic Parameterization (REP) Model by employing a 10-m wind field and sea-level pressure from historical typhoons to provide more realistic typhoon model and to generate better storm surges when the influence of topography is non-negligible. We adopted the ERA-5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with a total of 3200 data from 1981 to 2021. ERA-5 reanalysis data were validated against ground observation from the Central Weather Administration (CWA) in Taiwan, including pressure and wind speed gauge data. The storm surge was simulated using the COMCOT-SS model. The results were compared with the tidal gauge data from CWA as well. Excellent comparison results can be seen. After the validation, the ERA-5 data were used as the database to generate the weather field by providing the location and intensity of the typhoon.
