| 摘要: | 本研究調查了氣候變遷對中央蘭邦縣比克里灌溉區種植季節的影響，以及優化灌溉作物模式以減輕乾旱的不利影響。研究使用了Thiessen多邊形方法進行降雨分佈分析，並使用CROPWAT 8.0 應用程序計算蒸發蒸散量。研究結果顯示，在研究期間，年降雨量顯著減少，氣溫上升，導致作物的水需求增加。分析強調了適應性種植模式和高效水管理的重要性，以應對這些挑戰。玉米作物的總水需求從氣候變遷前的378.0公升/秒/公頃增加到氣候變遷後的492.8公升/秒/公頃。因此，灌溉面積由2,471公頃縮減至1,727公頃，年經濟效益從34,350,082,705印尼盾減少到24,006,724,774印尼盾。此外，研究還通過線性規劃優化探索了各種種植策略，顯示多樣化的種植模式，包括玉米、大豆、豆類和洋蔥，能顯著提高經濟效益。此研究強調了持續監測和適應的重要性，以在持續氣候變遷的背景下維持可持續的農業實踐。;This study investigates the impact of climate change on planting seasons in the Bekri Irrigation Area, Central Lampung Regency, and the optimization of irrigation cropping patterns to mitigate the adverse effects of drought. The research employs the Thiessen Polygon Method for rainfall distribution analysis and the CROPWAT 8.0 application for evapotranspiration calculations. The findings reveal a significant decrease in annual rainfall and an increase in temperatures over the study period, resulting in higher water requirements for crops. The analysis highlights the necessity of adaptive planting patterns and efficient water management to address these challenges. Total water requirements for corn crops increased from 378.0 lt/s/ha before climate change to 492.8 lt/s/ha after climate change. Consequently, the irrigated area shrank from 2,471 hectares to 1,727 hectares, resulting in a decrease in annual economic benefit from Rp34,350,082,705 to Rp24,006,724,774. Additionally, the study explores various planting strategies through linear programming optimization, demonstrating that diversified cropping patterns, including corn, soybeans, beans, and onions, can significantly enhance economic benefits. This research underscores the importance of continuous monitoring and adaptation to maintain sustainable agricultural practices in the face of ongoing climate change. |
