以小波分析技術建立創新乾旱時空分佈指標與氣候變遷乾旱風險分析;non

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題名:	以小波分析技術建立創新乾旱時空分佈指標與氣候變遷乾旱風險分析;non
作者:	白馨文;Pai, Hsin-Wen
貢獻者:	土木工程學系
關鍵詞:	氣候變遷;乾旱指標;經驗正交函數;小波分析;標準化降雨指標;Climate Change;Drought Index;Empirical Orthogonal Functions;Wavelet Analysis;Standardized Precipitation Index
日期:	2024-07-29
上傳時間:	2024-10-09 14:47:39 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	在氣候變遷下，乾旱事件更是層出不窮，臺灣降雨時空分布不均，且位於全球乾旱災害高風險地區，評估乾旱災害為一項重要議題。就目前已發展出之不同乾旱指標，大多需使用多種氣象因子為參數，當資料不足或缺失便難以進行分析，而常被使用之標準化降雨指標(Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI)雖然僅使用降雨量作為輸入因子，但其較難以各種時間尺度進行分析，因此本研究欲建立一新乾旱指標解決現有乾旱之缺點。本研究以經驗正交函數(Empirical Orthogonal Functions, EOF)及標準化降雨指標方法評估小波分析法(Wavelet Analysis, WA)適用於降雨及乾旱分析後，以小波分析法為基礎建立之新乾旱指標-小波降雨指標(Wavelet Precipitation Index, WPI)，除彌補現有乾旱指標之缺點外，其去除雜訊之優勢能夠更容易觀察降雨量變化趨勢，也能比較各期間是否相對乾燥，提早發現乾旱徵兆。最後透過小波降雨指標，針對不同氣候變遷情境進行年尺度乾旱災害評估，發現在減緩與調適挑戰最高之情境SSP3-7.0乾旱發生次數最高。希望藉由此研究建立之小波降雨指標，提供新乾旱災害評估方法之參考，以提早規畫執行應變措施，降低乾旱所帶來之負面影響。 ;Under climate change, drought events are becoming increasingly frequent. Taiwan experiences uneven spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and is located in a region with high risk of drought disasters globally. Therefore, assessing drought disasters is a significant issue. Most of the existing drought indices require multiple meteorological factors as parameters, making analysis difficult when data is insufficient or missing. The commonly used Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), while using only rainfall as an input factor, is challenging to analyze across various time scales. This study aims to establish a new drought index to address the shortcomings of existing drought indices. This research employs Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method to evaluate the applicability of Wavelet Analysis (WA) for rainfall and drought analysis. Based on this evaluation, a new drought index—the Wavelet Precipitation Index (WPI)—is established. This index not only addresses the shortcomings of existing drought indices but also, with its noise reduction advantage, allows for easier observation of rainfall trends and comparison of relative dryness over different periods, thereby enabling early detection of drought signs. Finally, through the Wavelet Precipitation Index, an annual scale drought disaster assessment is conducted under different climate change scenarios. It is found that the highest number of drought occurrences is in the scenario with the highest mitigation and adaptation challenges, SSP3-7.0. It is hoped that the Wavelet Precipitation Index established in this study can provide a reference for new drought disaster assessment methods, allowing for early planning and implementation of contingency measures to reduce the negative impacts of drought.
顯示於類別:	[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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