| 摘要: | 利用全球電離層圖(Global Ionosphere Map, GIM)統計研究1999-2023年日本、台灣、菲律賓、蘇門答臘、北美、南美、中國、阿拉伯、地中海等九個地區之地震前電離層全電子含量 (Total Electron Content, TEC) 異常，探討各個地區之地震電離層前兆 (seismo-ionospheric precursors, SIPs) 特徵，以判定和偵搜異常。利用單樣本 (Z) 檢定鑑別不同規模地震的時間前兆特性 (極性、時段、領先天數)，再藉由接收者操作特徵曲線 (Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, ROC curve) 確認前兆特性之統計顯著性。進一步利用勝算 (Odds) 統計探討前兆與地震規模、深度之關係。結果發現前兆勝算與地震規模具有正向關係。前兆勝算與地震深度研究的結果則顯示，於莫氏不連續面、岩石圈-軟流圈邊界與上下地函過渡帶，對應的前兆勝算通常會大於3.17，即顯著水準大於0.05。;This study employs statistical analysis of the Global Ionosphere Map (GIM) to investigate the anomalies of the pre-earthquake ionospheric total electron content (TEC), and explore the characteristics of seismo-ionospheric precursors (SIPs) in nine regions including Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Sumatra, North America, South America, China, the Arabian region, and the Mediterranean during 1999-2023, The one-sample (Z) test is employed to identify the characteristics of temporal precursors (polarity, time period, leading days) for earthquakes of different magnitudes, and the statistical significance of the precursor characteristics is confirmed by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The relationship between precursors and earthquake magnitude and depth is further explored using odds. The results indicate that the odds and earthquake magnitude are positively associated. The study of odds with earthquake depth reveals that odds (>3.17) are significantly greater than 1.0 at the Moho discontinuity, lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, and upper and lower mantle transition zone. |
