2019年底，嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎（COVID-19）疫情在中國湖北省武漢市爆發，並迅速蔓延，導致全球人流、物流及金流都受到巨大的影響，造成全球經濟嚴重衝擊。為因應疫情對國內經濟及社會的影響，我國政府推出紓困貸款方案，協助中小企業渡過難關，促進國內金融穩定。 本研究以國內B銀行某分行於2020年4月至2022年6月辦理央行C方案貸款案件為研究對象，利用羅吉斯迴歸模型進行分析，探討各變數因子對中央銀行中小企業貸款專案融通C方案貸款逾期放款的影響，這些變數依序分為三大類：企業基本資料、銀行核貸條件、負責人基本資料及信用狀況等重要因素，實證結果顯示公司組織型態、負責人婚姻狀況、負責人近一年信用卡曾有逾期繳款等變數與逾期放款具有顯著相關。此研究結果將為未來金融機構辦理相關授信時提供參考，俾利降低銀行逾期放款及授信風險的發生率。;At the end of 2019, the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak erupted in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, and rapidly spread, causing significant impacts on global human flow, logistics, and financial flows. This had a severe economic impact worldwide.In response to the epidemic′s impact on the domestic economy and society, our government introduced a bailout loan program to assist small and medium-sized enterprises in overcoming difficulties.This aims to promote domestic financial stability. This study focuses on loan cases processed by a specific branch of Bank B in Taiwan under the Central Bank′s C Scheme from April 2020 to June 2022. Logistic regression models were employed for analysis, investigating the impact of various variable factors on the overdue loans of Central Bank of the Republic of China′s Small and Medium Enterprise Loan Program Financing C Loan. These variables are categorized into three main groups: company basic information, bank loan approval conditions, responsible person′s basic information, and credit status, among other important factors.The empirical results showed significant correlations with variables such as company organizational structure, marital status of the responsible person, and their history of overdue credit card payments in the past year. The result of this research provides a reference for future financial institutions in handling related credit, aiming to reduce the occurrence rate of bank overdue loans and credit risk.
