摘要(英) |
Gold is the best hedging product among the international financial; it cannot only against global recession, mostly it’s one of the important hedging tools. This study focuses on international gold market profile that will be affected by interest rates or not. Use the daily data of international gold market profit, trade weighting U.S. Dollar Index and Federal Funds Rate to analyze, during 1st January 1990 to December 31 2009; using unit root test, Autoregressive Condition Heteroskedasticity model (ARCH) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity mode (GARCH) to observe the relationship between international gold market profit and interest rate effect.
This study is shown observable signification between international gold market profit and interest rate effect during July 1st 2003 to December 31 2009. The international gold market profit and itself next period is significant positive influence each other, exchange rate will influence the international gold market profit in the same period(negative), Federal funds rate will influence the international gold market profit in the next three period (negative). During July 1st 2003 to December 31 2009 this period of observation of the international gold market profit have a significant interest rate effect.
It commonly known as the bull market from Year 2003 to 2008, the interest rate effect is called the capital liquidity by financial market after 2003. It’s similar to interest rate effect during Year 2009; which is may affect the capital market inflation. The phenomenon with other economy factors may also affect other countries monetary policy, there by affecting the gold market. When the Fed cut interest rates, it’s shown its doing all it can in the lift the U.S. economy, the market focus will shift to interest rate differences between other countries, but also will lead to continued dollar go weakness, which is generally considered the main reason for the Yen carry. Future change direction of gold price is depends on the trend of U.S. dollar exchange rate. The US dollar exchange rate movements will closely related on U.S. economic growth and Federal Reserve Board (FED) monetary policy.
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